We’re back with another weekly look at the NBA Tuesday Night on TNT betting odds to make sense of how the headline game will shape up. For this week we’re going to focus on the matchup between the Golden State Warriors and the Milwaukee Bucks.
Plenty of stars in this one - some future Hall of Famers - which leads me to believe that we’re going to see lots of points, yeah? Maybe. So, you know, let’s dig in.
Milwaukee Bucks (19-7) vs. Golden State Warriors (14-13)
Warriors +4; ML +150; O/U 233
Believe it or not, we’re closing in on a third of the way through the season and the Warriors are fighting for a playoff spot at 9th in the West. The Bucks, on the other hand, are coasting a bit and sitting in 2nd in the East. They’ve won 7 of their last 10, while the Warriors have had their kryptonite exposed: road games.
Golden State is 2-11 on the road this season. They are 29th in defensive rating (119.2) on the road. Yikes. The Bucks, if you’re wondering, are 5th in offensive rating (117.2) at home this season. So, you know, that’s something to look at.
However - yes, however - if you zoom in a bit you can see some light for the Warriors:
- Golden State is coming off a huge win over the Celtics this weekend (at home)
- Milwaukee is coming off a pretty awful loss to the Rockets (yuck) in their last game
- Khris Middleton, again, appears to be injured (ankle) - Jrue Holiday (illness) is also questionable for the Bucks
- Andrew Wiggins is OUT for the Warriors, which actually might help them in this one - moving Jordan Poole into the starting lineup has helped the offense push the pace and even improved the defense over their last three games (11th in DRTG - an improvement!)
Well, what do we do with this information? I actually think the Warriors are trending in the right direction and with the points (+4) I feel good about taking Golden State with the spread (I’m actually taking the ML, but the safer bet is the points).
I also think we’re going to see the UNDER tonight - especially IF Middleton and Holiday don’t play. The Warriors are showing up better on defense without Wiggins and the Bucks can/will struggle to score without Middleton and Holiday (even without on, not just both).
This should be a fun one, nonetheless.