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Nets Draft 2017: What history says Nets can get at 22 and 27

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We’re tracking the Nets Draft right up to June 22. Today, it’s a look at what you can (reasonably) expect at Nos. 22 and 27.

NBA: Toronto Raptors at Brooklyn Nets Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The Brooklyn Nets will have picks number 22 and 27 in the first round of the June 22, NBA Draft, which means we’ve been in mock draft hell for months now.

Throughout the summer, the Nets have been slated to getting International prospect Kristaps Po…I mean…Isaiah Hartenstien, Duke’s Harry Giles, UCLA’s T.J. Leaf, and Purdue’s Caleb Swanigan among others in mock drafts. According to our latest survey of the mock drafts, Hartenstein is the consensus choice at No. 22, Terrance Ferguson at No. 27.

Over the last two drafts, the Nets have walked away with Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Chris McCullough and Caris LeVert in this same 20’s range. So there’s some hope the Nets could get a rotation player or two this time around.

With Hollis-Jefferson and LeVert (along with 2016 42nd overall draft choice Isaiah Whitehead and others), the Nets’ fountain of youth could be the start of team building in the right direction.

So what kind of players will be available for the Nets if they pick in this same range again, and while we’re at it, what type of players are Hollis-Jefferson and LeVert destined to become, based on a historical analysis?

Since the beginning of the one-and-done era (every draft since 2006), there have been all kinds of NBA prospects who’ve come out of the 20’s: those who became starters, those who never developed, a few became All-Stars, while others didn’t even make it to the League.

So we devised our own system, a Five-Tier System, to further analyze the history, then breaking down where each selection from 20-to-30 since 2006 fits

Here are the tiers:

Tier 1. “Bouncers” – Can’t really stay in the league (Less than 100 games or minimal minutes)

Tier 2. “Boone Squad” – Substantial minutes for about four seasons or less, (Boone as in Josh, remember that guy?)

Tier 3. “Role players” – Reliable, usually off the bench options. Have been doing it for years, and will start when needed.

Tier 4. “Major Keys” – Guys who play big minutes and or have started most of their appearances, while giving substantial production.

Tier 5. “All-Stars” – literally, self-explanatory. The crème de la crème in this study.

And here are where we place them... year-by-year, 2006 through 2016. Nets picks in bold...

2006:

20: Renaldo Balkman SF – Tier 2

21: Rajon Rondo PG – Tier 5

22. Marcus Williams PG – Tier 2

23. Josh Boone C – Tier 2

24. Kyle Lowry PG – Tier 5

25. Shannon Brown SG – Tier 3

26. Jordan Farmer PG – Tier 3

27. Sergio Rodriguez PG – Tier 3

28. Maurice Ager SG – Tier 1

29. Mardy Collins SG – Tier 2

30. Joel Freeland PF – Tier 1

Notable second round picks: Steve Novak (32), PJ Tucker (35), Craig Smith (36), Boobie Gibson (42), Paul Millsap (47), Ryan Hollins (50).

2007:

20. Jason Smith – Tier 3

21. Daequan Cook – Tier 3

22. Jared Dudley – Tier 3

23. Wilson Chandler – Tier 4

24. Rudy Fernandez – Tier 3

25. Morris Almond – Tier 1

26. Aaron Brooks – Tier 3

27. Arron Afflalo – Tier 4

28. Tiago Splitter – Tier 3

29. Alando Tucker – Tier 1

30. Petteri Koponen – Tier 1 (never played)

Notable seconds: Carl Landry (31), Glen Davis (35), Josh McRoberts (37), Marc Gasol (48), Ramon Sessions (56).

2008:

20. Alexis Ajinca – Tier 3

21. Ryan Anderson – Tier 4 (plays starters mins: 26.5 mpg)

22. Courtney Lee – Tier 4

23. Kosta Koufos – Tier 3

24. Serge Ibaka – Tier 4

25. Nic Batum – Tier 4

26. George Hill – Tier 4

27. Darrell Arthur – Tier 3

28. Donte Greene – Tier 2

29. D.J. White – Tier 1

30. J.R. Giddens – Tier 1

Notable seconds: Nikola Pekovic (31), Mario Chalmers (34), DeAndre Jordan (35), Omer Asik (36), Luc Mbah a Moute (37), Goran Dragic (45).

2009:

20. Eric Maynor – Tier 2

21. Darren Collison – Tier 4

22. Victor Claver – Tier 1

23. Omri Casspi – Tier 3

24. Byron Mullens – Tier 2 (substantial mins for short amount of time)

25. Rodrigue Beaubois – Tier 2

26. Taj Gibson – Tier 3

27. DeMarre Carroll – Tier 4 (was tier 3 until 2013)

28. Wayne Ellington – Tier 3

29. Toney Douglas – Tier 3

30. Chris Eyenga – Tier 2

Notable seconds: Dante Cunningham (33), DeJuan Blair (37), Jonas Jerebko (39), Jodie Meeks (41), Pat Beverley (42), Marcus Thornton (43), Chase Budinger (44), Danny Green (46), Patrick Mills (55).

2010:

20. James Anderson – Tier 2 (All big mins were in 13-14 season)

21. Craig Brackins – Tier 1

22. Elliot Williams – Tier 2

23. Trevor Booker – Tier 3

24. Damion James – Tier 1

25. Dominique Jones – Tier 1

26. Quincy Pondexter – Tier 3

27. Jordan Crawford – Tier 3

28. Greivis Vasquez – Tier 3

29. Daniel Orton – Tier 1

30. Lazar Hayward – Tier 1

Notable seconds: Hasson Whiteside (33), Landry Fields (39), Lance Stephenson (40)

2011:

20. Donatas Motiejunas – Tier 3

21. Nolan Smith – Tier 1

22. Kenneth Faried – Tier 4

23. Nikola Mirotic – Tier 3

24. Reggie Jackson – Tier 4

25. MarShon Brooks – Tier 2

26. Jordan Hamilton – Tier 2

27. JaJuan Johnson – Tier 1

28. Norris Cole – Tier 3

29. Cory Joseph – Tier 3

30. Jimmy Butler – Tier 5

Notable seconds: Bojan Bogdanovic (31), Kyle Singler (33), Shelvin Mack (34), Chandler Parsons (38), Jon Leuer (40), Lavoy Allen (50), E’Twaun Moore (55), Isaiah Thomas (60)

2012:

20. Evan Fournier – Tier 3

21. Jared Sullinger – Tier 3

22. Fab Melo – Tier 1

23. John Jenkins – Tier 2

24. Jared Cunningham – Tier 2

25. Tony Wroten – Tier 2

26. Miles Plumlee – Tier 3

27. Arnett Moultrie – Tier 1

28. Perry Jones – Tier 1

29. Marquis Teague – Tier 1

30. Festus Ezeli – Tier 2

Notable seconds: Jae Crowder (34), Draymond Green (35), Quincy Acy (37), Khris Middleton (39), Will Barton (40), Kyle O’Quinn (49)

2013:

20. Tony Snell – Tier 3

21. Gorgui Dieng – Tier 3

22. Mason Plumlee – Tier 3

23. Solomon Hill – Tier 3

24. Tim Hardaway Jr. – Tier 3 (Will probably be tier four after this next season or two)

25. Reggie Bullock – Tier 2

26. Andre Roberson – Tier 3

27. Rudy Gobert – Tier 4

28. Livio Jean-Charles – Tier 1 (Never made it past Spurs pre-season)

28. Archie Goodwin – Tier 3

29. Nemanja Nedovic – Tier 1

Notable seconds: Allen Crabbe (31), Isaiah Cannan (34)

2014:

20. Bruno Caboclo – Tier 1

21. Mitch McGary – Tier 1

22. Jordan Adams – Tier 1

23. Rodney Hood – Tier 4

24. Shabazz Napier – Tier 2

25. Clint Capela – Tier 3 (soon to be tier 4)

26. P.J. Hairston – Tier 2

27. Bogdan Bogdanovic – (on his way?)

28. C.J. Wilcox – Tier 1

29. Josh Huestis – Tier 1

30. Kyle Anderson – Tier 2

Notable seconds: K.J. McDaniels (32), Joe Harris (33), Spencer Dinwiddie (38), Jerami Grant (39), Glenn Robinson III (40), Nikola Jokic (41), Jordan Clarkson (46)

2015:

20. Delon Wright – Tier 2

21. Justin Anderson – Tier 2

22. Bobby Portis – Tier 3

23. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson – Tier 3

24. Tyus Jones – Tier 2

25. Jarell Martin – Tier 2

26. Nikola Milutinov – (Hasn’t come)

27. Larry Nance Jr. – Tier 3

28. R.J. Hunter – Tier 1

29. Chris McCullough – Tier 1

30. Kevon Looney – Tier 1

Notable seconds: Willy Hernangomez (35), Richaun Holmes (37), Josh Richardson (40), Andrew Harrison (44), Norman Powell (46)

2016:

20. Caris LeVert – Tier 3

21. DeAndre Bembry – Tier 2

22. Malachi Richardson – Tier 2

23. Ante Zizic – (Hasn’t come)

24. Timothe Luwawu – Tier 3

25. Brice Johnson – Tier 1

26. Furkan Korkmaz – (Hasn’t come)

27. Pascal Siakam – Tier 2

28. Skal Labissiere – Tier 3

29. Dejounte Murray – Tier 2

30. Damian Jones – Tier 1

Notable seconds: Ivica Zubac (32), Tyler Ullis (34), Malcolm Brogdon (36), Isaiah Whitehead (42).

And in chart form, here’s what the data looks like out of the 116 players.

Untitled

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 Tier 5
Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 Tier 5
31 (26.7%) 28 (24.1%) 41 (35.3%) 13 (11.2%) 3 (0.03%)
Year Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
6 2 4 3 --
7 3 -- 6 2
8 2 1 3 5
9 1 4 4 2
10 5 1 4 --
11 2 2 4 2
12 4 4 3 --
13 2 1 7 1
14 5 3 1 1
15 3 4 3 --
16 2 4 3 --

But ideally, you could snag solid role players in the 20’s. Some of the standouts from ‘Tier 3’ include players like Aaron Brooks, Trevor Booker and Evan Fournier. Those level of players seem to be the norm, according to the research.

But nearly 51% of players are in the first two tiers, the lowest ones. Players from the top two tiers represent only one-fifth of those taken in the 20’s.

Getting an All-Star? as the data suggests, is possible, but historically unlikely, less than one-third of one percent. A solid role player is more like the norm, with a slight chance of drafting a starter.

However, in year one of the Sean Marks era, the Nets have demonstrated a level of competence in player development. LeVert and Hollis-Jefferson look like future ‘Tier 4’ guys, or everyday starters. Of course, they could trade up and move up a few spots, but the data doesn’t dramatically suggest a couple of spots is going to mean much.

Only if they get into the lottery, would they have a good chance of success. The consensus wisdom of the league’s GM’s in this era of scouting databases and analytics is usually pretty good.

Cross your fingers.