The Nets brain trust has gathered in Moscow for the next two days. They’ll be talking everything from the current roster to free agency to the draft ... and as Sean Marks said Monday, do some scouting, too. CSKA Moscow and Milos Teodosic play Baskonia Thursday night in Moscow.
No doubt, one of the things the group will consider is bidding for the top restricted free agents ... and how much it will cost. Forbes Magazine, working with data from FiveThirtyEight.com, the analytics site, has come up with numbers on several of the top RFA’s. Big numbers.
Here’s the Forbes analysis on how much some of the young RFA’s will cost, derived in large part from FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO system....
Otto Porter, Washington Wizards, SF, $128.2 million
Porter is in the final year of a four-year, $19.3 million contract that is paying him $5.89 million for the current 2016-17 season. According to FiveThirtyEight, Porter could command a max contract that would pay him $128.2 million over the next five seasons. If another team offers Porter that kind of money, it will be very difficult for the Wizards to keep him in the fold going forward without some additional maneuvering of additional players.
Nerlens Noel, Dallas Mavericks, C, $140.3 million
Noel is in the final year of a four-year, $14.3 million contract that saw him earn $4.38 million for the 2016-17 season. Noel still remains very young, as he just turned 23 years old early this month and he hasn’t shown the immediate contributions one might expect, he still has plenty of opportunities to do so in the future. FiveThirtyEight believes his five-year market value is $140.2 million, and if a team is willing to offer Noel a max deal then the Mavericks might be in real danger of seeing him walk.
Andre Roberson, Oklahoma City Thunder, SF, $70.3 million
Roberson is in the final year of a four-year, $5.29 million contract that saw him make $2.18 million during the 2016-17 season. Roberson has his offensive deficiencies, but remains just 25 years old and will always have a home in the NBA as long as he plays his top-notch defense. If he starts to figure out his offensive game, he could become an All-Star-caliber talent in short order. FiveThirtyEight has his five-year value at $70.3 million, but if one team greatly values his defensive presence in their rotation that number could continue to go north.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Detroit Pistons, SG, $104 million
Caldwell-Pope reportedly turned down an extension from the Pistons that would have paid him more than $20 million annually, so he clearly has confidence in his game and is willing to risk going on the free agent market this offseason to get an even better deal.
It has been reported that the Pistons won’t give him the maximum contract he desires, but it has also been reported the Brooklyn Nets will have an interest in Caldwell-Pope in a max deal once he hits free agency in July.
Tim Hardaway, Atlanta Hawks, SF
While FiveThirtyEight doesn’t have big projections for Hardaway Jr.’s long-term value, his productive season and playoff exposure could propel him to a much larger contract in Atlanta or elsewhere that could exceed previous expectations. His playoff performance will be very vital for himself and the Hawks as well. Hardaway Jr. enters the offseason as a restricted free agent.
Restricted free agency will be a bit different this summer. Teams can tender their offer sheets on July 1, rather than July 7 ... and the player’s current club will only have two days, not three, to make a decision on matching.