Kevin Pelton, who does a lot of stats-based analysis for ESPN Insider, takes a crack at predicting Hall of Fame votes. Among the group he looks at are Joe Johnson and Vince Carter. The numbers, particularly those of the latest inductees, suggests that both will make it.
VC's induction has long been a subject of debate, but Johnson's has barely been discussed. But based on Mitch Richmond's selection, Pelton thinks the Nets' swingman has a good chance. In fact, he argues it's "probable."
Johnson's candidacy inspired this list, specifically because of his similarity to Richmond's numbers and career. Like Richmond, Johnson's advanced stats are unimpressive, but his consistent scoring has added up. While nobody thinks of it as a magic number such as 3,000 career hits in baseball, all but one eligible player with at least 20,000 career points has been voted to the Hall of Fame. (Tom Chambers is the exception.) Johnson, with 17,000-plus points at age 33, stands an excellent chance of cracking 20K. Add in seven All-Star appearances -- more than recent Hall of Fame shooting guards Richmond (6), Joe Dumars (6), Dennis Johnson (5) and Reggie Miller (5) -- and it seems probable that Johnson will one day be immortalized in Springfield.
As for Carter, who had his best years with the Nets, Pelton says it's very likely.
No player with as many career points (23,190 and counting) has ever been stiff-armed from entry into Springfield. Like it or not, VC seems Hall-bound.
Of course, numbers are not the only credential. Carter for example popularized basketball in Canada, not an inconsequential feat. He also is arguably the best dunker in the history of the game ... and probably the greatest in-game dunk of all time. Not to mention he has an Olympic gold medal, also like Richmond.
- NBA - Which current NBA players on Hall of Fame brink should be enshrined? - Kevin Pelton - ESPN Insider
Is Joe Johnson a Hall of Famer? - Ryan Carbain - The Brooklyn Game