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Analytics-based projection has Nets with East's best record


ESPN's Brad Doolittle has some concerns about the Nets future, which he expressed the day after the Celtics trade, but once he ran everything --well, everything we know now-- through his computer model, the Nets came out on top ... . His analysis projects the Nets will finish with a 64-18 record, best in the East, two games better than the Heat..

Here's how he came up with it...

"I employed the ATH-based projection system of NBAPET, my collection of integrated spreadsheets that serves as a projection, evaluation and tracking model.

"In a nutshell, the system uses ATH ratings to generate baseline projections for each player, then integrates the baseline forecasts into 30 team forecasts. Since there are only 1,230 wins to go around, every move affects every other team. So every time a transaction occurs and I update the rosters and balance the minutes, the projected standings change at least a little."

Well, we can't vouch for that method, but we did like Doc Rivers' very non-analytic projection of how the trade will effect the Nets. He told Dan Patrick last Friday that the Nets will be "right up there" with other teams in the East.

"Right up there. With Jason Kidd and Lawrence Frank, who was with me -- he's going to be terrific by the way for Jason -- I think that is a super hire by Jason Kidd and you know, I'm just going to let them fight it out. But their culture just changed. When you bring Kevin Garnett into a basketball team, you have an immediate culture change.

"Forget the on-court stuff. They're going to benefit so much just from having Kevin Garnett on the roster. It's going to be an amazing transformation!"

Don't know how that computes.