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Stats Geeks Down on Wallace

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Mar 7, 2012; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Portland Trail Blazers small forward Gerald Wallace (3) warms up prior to facing the Minnesota Timberwolves at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Greg Smith-US PRESSWIRE
Mar 7, 2012; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Portland Trail Blazers small forward Gerald Wallace (3) warms up prior to facing the Minnesota Timberwolves at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Greg Smith-US PRESSWIRE

No one has been harder on the Nets trade for Gerald Wallace than stats geeks. John Hollinger noted on Thursday that Wallace's 15.5 Player Efficiency Rating (PER) this year is his lowest since 2004-05. Now Bradford Doolittle of Basketball Prospectus points out that Wallace is way down in another statistical measure, Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP).

Both suggest the dropoff is probably due to his advancing age (29). In his analysis on ESPN Insider, Doolittle writes, "The
chances of this ending well are not good. Wallace is blocking fewer shots, getting to the line less and grabbing fewer rebounds than projected. These are all possible signs of athletic decline, and once that goes, it doesn't come back."

He concedes that "players of Wallace's ilk remain solid role players and defensive stoppers well into their 30s, and there is plenty of value in that ... And his decline may turn out to be more gradual than sudden, which is surely what the Nets are banking on. If they're wrong, Wallace isn't worth the $9.5 million the Nets will pay him next season."