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Berger: Likely D12 Moves in July

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Two weeks ago, Ken Berger suggested that people shouldn't dismiss the Lakers' chances of landing Dwight Howard. But now, he seems to saying that the Nets are in the lead, but that fans will probably have to wait till free agency to see him signed. Brooklyn, he writes, is "the clear leader in the clubhouse" but the Nets may have to wait.

Aware of Howard's world view and the Magic's aversion to trading him, league front-office sources believe the Nets can get Howard in the summer without having to trade for him. Why would they absorb Hedo Turkoglu's contract and surrender assets if they don't have to? The aforementioned $30 million, to some degree, has been overstated. The difference is one year and 3 percent smaller raises under the new collective bargaining agreement, money that a 26-year-old superstar can make up with marketing dollars and, barring injury, his next contract.

As for Dallas, Berger lays out an unlikely series of events that would have to transpire before the Mavericks would have enough to sign Howard and Deron Williams. Meanwhile, Bill SImmons is not persuaded by the math and thinks D-Will will return home. "I haven't talked to one person "In the Know" who isn't 100 percent convinced that Dallas is getting him. But let's all keep pretending this isn't true."