Trading Vince Carter, Marcus Williams and Jamaal Magloire for a declining Jermaine O'Neal may not make a lot of sense at first glance, but could it pay off down the line? The guys behind NetsDaily talk it out.
This conversation took place before O'Neal revealed that he might miss the rest of the season.
NETSDAILY: Carter's new contract is looking like a mistake these days. You're not going to get much value in return, but if you can get out from under one or two of those years, you've got to think hard about it.
NET INCOME: I would not trade him for either O'Neal, both of whom are physically impaired and with worse contracts.
NETSDAILY: If you don't count the '11-12 team option on Carter, both contracts are a year shorter. Not ideal, but it could pay off when O'Neal's (your choice) contract expires in the summer of 2010.
When does LeBron James become a free agent (if he declines his player option)?
The summer of 2010.
When does Dwyane Wade become a free agent (if he declines his player option)?
The summer of 2010.
When will the Nets (possibly) be moving to Brooklyn?
The summer of 2010.
Vince is not a good fit with either Kidd or Jefferson. And if you deal him, you free up cap space in 2010 while still keeping Kidd as bait for James or Wade. In the meantime, you lose Carter's scoring and playmaking, but you replace him with someone who's more willing to defend and run the floor. I don't think the dropoff in the standings would be that drastic. Heck, it couldn't get much worse than it already is.
NET INCOME: How many season tickets will the Nets sell in 2008-09, 2009-10? That is a factor. Why would anyone buy a season ticket in a rebuilding season or two? The lesson Ratner learned in 2004 was not about winning. It was about marketing stars.
NETSDAILY: Do you really think Carter would sell that many more season tickets than Jermaine O'Neal? C'mon.
Carter's ability to draw has passed. Check the decline in his All-Star votes, Jersey sales or the fact that Nike no longer promotes him or gives him a signature shoe.
Kidd is their biggest star and he would still be here.
NET INCOME: Jermaine O'Neal cannot practice and play games this season. He needs to rest his knee. He said that two days ago when he announced he would be out at least two weeks with a knee bruise. He said he did not anticipate being able to do both for the rest of the year either. He is owed $44 million after this season. He could easily be done, permanently, and certainly isn't worth that much money. This wasn't ACL surgery or microfracture. This was supposedly minor surgery on this knee.
The Nets sell very well away from the IZOD Center. Last time I checked they were sixth in road attendance. Too bad the Nets don't get any of that revenue. Jersey fans are leaving them in droves. Telling Jersey fans "We are rebuilding for Brooklyn and you can watch us develop young talent for the Brooklyn Non-Nets" is hardly a way to market the team. They are in a real quandary. Over the next two years, once the construction starts, there will be a cash draw down in Ratnerville until they can get some revenue from Atlantic Yards. They can't afford catastrophic losses. Ratner's corporate parent agreed to lend the team $13 million last year to cover a percentage of the losses, according to company filings. The company was eating most of the losses until last year under their original deal with Ratner. The Nets have the highest debt to equity ratio of any NBA team, says Forbes.
As for Kidd, he couldn't draw flies in 2004-05. And his marketability has devalued by his divorce and subsequent and various other issues. He's a great player but has increasingly limited marketability.
I am not saying don't trade Carter—I don't care... I will still be a fan, but trading him for either O'Neal to get cap space to possibly sign Lebron James in 2010 is not a smart thing. Besides, I doubt we will see any major trades until the deadline.
And the EASY solution, one I don't agree with, is... Fire Frank!
NETSDAILY: But the point is that you're not going anywhere (in the standings or in filling the building) anyway. Might as well free yourself up of a year of paying someone who's not getting you any closer to where you want to be.
With that contract, you're not going to find many takers for Vince (Have we seen any proof that there were any this summer?). Expecting to get anything more than a guy with suspect knees in return is unrealistic. On the court, it may be a lateral move at best, but as I said above, it may pay off a little more than two years from now (though the chances of James or Wade leaving their current team are probably less than 50/50).
Of course, giving up on Marcus at this point is another question.