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Dumpy's Statistical Analysis - Round 1, Game 6

Playoffs Round One
Game Six

Indiana at New Jersey, May 4, 2006
Score: New Jersey 96, Indiana 90

New Jersey withstands a barrage by former Net Anthony Johnson to win Game Six and take the series, propelling themselves into a second-round match with mighty Miami. Here are the numbers behind the box score:

Player Min. Efficiency Plus-Minus
Richard Jefferson 46.9 35 +6
Vince Carter 39.4 22 +10
Jason Kidd 38.3 21 +1
Jason Collins 27.0 6 -7
Nenad Krstic 25.2 18 -1
Clifford Robinson 27.3 4 +11
Lamond Murray 22.6 12 +7
Jacque Vaughn 12.9 -1 +5

I let John Thomas off the chart (0.6 minutes, -2).

After I badmouth Cliff Robinson, he goes out and has his most productive game of the series. Go figure.

Here are the totals for the six-game series:

Player Min. Efficiency Plus-Minus
Richard Jefferson 261.4 130 +7
Vince Carter 243.8 185 +37
Jason Kidd 237.3 103 -1
Nenad Krstic 206.3 112 +14
Jason Collins 154.3 33 +32
Clifford Robinson 149.8 32 -15
Jacque Vaughn 99.0 19 +13
Lamond Murray 70.0 18 +3

Due to their limited minutes, I've left John Thomas, Zoran Planinic, Antoine Wright, and Scott Padgett off the totals chart. As I've promised, if any of them sends an e-mail to me here at NetsDaily, I'd be more than happy to add them to the chart.

Despite his strong performance in Game Six, Cliff still finishes with the lowest plus-minus on the team. Carter pulls ahead of Collins in the final game to take first place. I suspect that Robinson's performance against Miami will be a significant factor to the outcome of the series. We'll continue to keep an eye on this, and perhaps we'll take a game-by-game look at how the "Big Four" play with both Collins and Robinson to have a better sense of their respective impacts.

Here's a look at how the starters performed as a unit in Game Six:

Unit Stint Min. Plus-Minus
Starting Five (Nets) 1 (1st Quarter) 9.2 -5
2 (2nd Quarter) 2.7 +5
3 (2nd Quarter) 0.3 -2
4 (3rd Quarter) 0.2 +0
5 (4th Quarter) 3.4 -2
TOTAL 15.8 -4

Possibly their worst overall performance of the series.

Let's continue to look at the time when Jacque Vaughn was on the court with Jason Kidd:

Kidd & Vaughn plus: Min. Plus-Minus
Jefferson, Murray, Robinson 2.0 -3
Carter, Jefferson, Krstic 0.7 +0
Carter, Jefferson, Collins 0.2 +2
TOTAL 2.9 -1

Another mediocre performance from a plus-minus perspective. As we've done previously, let's also look again at Indiana's shooting percentage against the Vaughn-Kidd backcourt:

4th Quarter 4 2 1
TOTAL 4 2 1

It's no surprise that Coach Frank has limited the minutes that Kidd and Vaughn have played together. Vaughn needs to rediscover his mojo, and fast.

Finally, let's return to our examination of the offensive rebound count:

Quarter IND OReb IND Points off OReb NJN OReb NJN Points off OReb
1 2 4 5 9
2 1 0 2 2
3 2 4 2 2
4 2 2 5 4
Total 7 10 14 17

Let me note again that these results were gleaned from the published game log, which may include some inaccuracies. The number of rebounds shown on this chart includes those credited to the team, which is why the totals might not match what you see in the box score. Points were considered to be scored off of offensive rebounds regardless of whether it was a tip-in, an immediate lay-up, a shot 15 seconds later but part of the same possession, or foul shots.

So the Nets outscored Indiana after an offensive rebound by seven points, roughly the entire margin of victory. It goes without saying that it will be a bit more difficult to pull down offensive boards against Miami than it was against Indiana. I suspect that the points-after-offensive rebound count will be a significant sub-theme during the Miami series. If the Nets can continue to pull down offensive rebounds at the same rate as their opponent, and do a good job converting them into points, then they'll have that much better chance to upset the Heat and take the series. On the other hand, if Shaq and Mourning are able to have their way under the glass, then things obviously will be more difficult. One thing is certain, though: It will be a heck of a series. See you then!