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Dumpy's Statistical Analysis - Hornets & Even More Rebounding

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New Orleans at New Jersey, February 6, 2006
Score: New Jersey 99, New Orleans 91

Player Min. Eff. Plus-Minus
Nenad Krstic 26.6 15 +22
Vince Carter 39.5 24 +22
Richard Jefferson 42.5 33 +15
Jason Collins 29.8 14 +14
Jason Kidd 38.1 21 +10
Clifford Robinson 26.0 11 +10
Jacque Vaughn 14.6 -1 -6
Lamond Murray 2.0 1 -7
Scott Padgett 11.0 1 -19
Antoine Wright 9.9 5 -21

Please see the previous blog entry for an explanation of the above data.

Great game for the starters. Other than Robinson, however, the reserves produced terrible plus-minus ratings. Part of this was due to the "garbage time" at the end of the game, when New Orleans outscored the Nets 10-2 in the final 2:45, but it is still troubling.

As usual, let's look how the starters performed as a unit:

Unit Stint Min. Plus-Minus
Starting Five 1 (1st Quarter) 8.5 +5
2 (3rd Quarter) 3.5 -2
3 (4th Quarter) 6.5 +9
TOTAL 18.5 +12

Terrific job.

Now, the Jacque Vaughn watch:

Vaughn Plus:

Unit Min. Plus-Minus
Kidd and Collins 6.6 +0
Kidd but not Collins 3.6 -3
Neither Kidd nor Collins 8.1 -4

Vaughn also played a bit with Collins and not Kidd, which is not reflected here.

For once, the Kidd-Vaughn-Collins trio seemed to work.

Let me add a new study:

Unit Min. Plus-Minus
Kidd and Wright 3.5 +0

Considering that Wright was an unbelievable minus-21 for the game, this bodes well.

Now let's return to the topic of offensive rebounds. First, here's a listing of all the offensive rebounds in this game, and the immediate result:

Team Quarter Time Rebounder Result
NJ 1 9:15 Collins Shooting foul (2-2)
NJ 2 9:34 [NJ] Shot clock violation
NJ 2 9:06 Padgett Missed shot
NO 3 8:38 Mason 2-point shot
NO 3 7:05 Snyder Missed shot
NJ 4 11:14 Collins Foul (2-2)
NO 4 9:11 Paul Missed shot
NO 4 8:23 Mason Missed shot
NO 4 3:02 Paul Missed shot
NJ 4 1:40 Wright Missed shot

In this game, then, the 10 offensive rebounds were directly responsible for 6 points, an average of just 0.6 points per offensive foul. Overall, the Nets outscored the Hornets 4-2 in points-after-offensive-rebounds, even though the teams each pulled down five offensive rebounds.

In my last blog entry, I discovered that Jason Collins makes the Nets a better rebounding team through a measurement I called "net rebound conversion rate." I then promised to compare Jason Collins to some of the top rebounders in the league. Here we go:

Player Off. Rebs Off. Reb chances Ind. Off. % Team Off. RCR Def. Rebs Def. Reb. chances Ind. Def. % Team Def. RCR Team Net RCR
J. Collins 48 914 5.3 26.5 111 899 12.3 24.0 2.5
D. Howard 163 1498 10.9 32.2 414 1588 26.1 28.1 4.1
B. Wallace 187 1574 11.9 32.7 382 1593 24.0 32.1 0.6
S. Marion 142 1950 7.3 24.1 429 2093 20.5 29.9 -5.8
T. Duncan 127 1517 8.4 26.8 417 1664 25.1 27.3 -0.5
K. Garnett 107 1588 6.7 27.1 424 1743 24.3 30.1 -3.0
E. Brand 142 1565 9.1 28.1 302 1787 16.9 27.9 0.2
A. Jamison 110 1811 6.1 32.2 351 1727 20.3 31.1 1.1
J. Magloire 139 1418 9.8 32.0 330 1387 23.8 26.6 5.4
C. Webber 119 1703 7.0 27.5 335 1733 19.3 31.1 -3.6
T. Murphy 105 1662 6.3 27.0 331 1563 21.2 31.1 -4.1

The chart includes the top ten rebounders in the league and Jason Collins. Of these players, Collins has the third best net rebound conversion rate, despite having the lowest individual offensive and defensive rebounding rates. The bottom line appears to be that Collins ranks among the league's best when it comes to net rebounding skills-that is, helping his team get offensive rebounds while helping to limit the opposition's offensive rebounds. ON this list, only Magloire and Howard surpass Collins' 2.5% net RCR score. What is truly remarkable is that some of the players on the list have negative net RCRs, despite the fact that they themselves are averaging at least 10 rebounds a game. In other words, when they are on the floor, their team gives up more offensive rebounds then it gets, expressed as a percentage of opportunities. Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett: Both have negative net RCRs. There are a few players not included here that are very good offensive rebounders, such as Drew Gooden and Erick Dampier, but are not in the top ten in overall rebounding. Perhaps next time we'll compare Collins to that group to end all doubt that Jason Collins is one of the best players in the league at producing offensive rebounds for his team and limiting them for the opposition.

--Dumpy