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Dumpy's Statistical Analysis: NJ at LA Lakers, November 26, 2006

Dumpy’s Statistical Analysis
November 26, 2006: LA Lakers 99, New Jersey 93

Thus losing by the same score for the second consecutive night.

Team Statistics

Possessions. The number of possessions (i.e., each time a team brings the ball up court) is a way to measure the pace of the game. For games involving running or trapping teams, the number of possessions will be high, possibly more than 100. For more methodical teams, the number of possessions may be closer to 80. Possessions can (generally) end one of three ways: on a field goal attempt that is not rebounded by the offense (this includes successful FG attempts); on a turnover, or through some free throws. Since this is an estimate based upon various statistics, and because the number of possessions should be approximately the same for both teams, we also present the average estimated number of possessions.

 New Jersey 90.4 Lakers 92 Average 91.2

One less than the team average.

Offensive Rating. A team’s offensive rating is just the number of points scored per 100 possessions. The opponent's offensive rating can be considered the team's Defensive Rating. For the past few seasons, the average team offensive rating in
the NBA has hovered around 105.

 New Jersey 102 Lakers 108.6

Assist Percentage. The assist percentage measures the frequency that successful field goals have been assisted.

 New Jersey 68.6% Lakers 81.1%

Given that Kidd earned 16 assists in the game, the 68.6% assist ratio for the Nets is pretty embarrassing. One way to measure team-wide ball movement is to examine the number of assists the players other than Kidd earned as a percentage of non-Kidd assisted field goals. We can call this metric the "non-Kidd Assist Percentage." For this game, the "non-Kidd Assist Percentage" was 42.2%. By my calculations, the average "non-Kidd Assist Percentage" for the season has been 48.7%, so they weren’t that far off their season average. Here’s something interesting, though. In games in which the Nets had a "non-Kidd Assist Percentage" under 45%, they have a record of, . . . wait for it . . ., 0-4. That’s pretty remarkable. That includes the two "outliers," the first game against Miami (33.3%) and the most recent game against Portland (23.5%). In all other games this metric has been at least 40%. Let’s compare that to games in which Kidd, himself, has had poor assist percentages. In games in which Kidd has had an assist percentage under 20%, the Nets have a record of 2-2. This is very limited data, but it suggests that Kidd’s assists are not as much of an indicator of team success as is the number of assists by the rest of the team.

How about games when these assist percentages have been high? In games where the "non-Kidd Assist Percentage" was above 55%, the Nets are 2-1. In games where Kidd himself has had an assist percentage above 30%, the Nets are 1-2.

We could also look at how the team offensive ratings correlate to the assist percentages, since the number of assists (unfortunately) is unlikely to help the team defense. So far this year, there has been a correlation of .25 between Kidd’s assist percentage and the team’s overall offensive rating; a correlation of .14 between all the team-wide assist percentage and the offensive rating; and a correlation of -1.7 between the non-Kidd assist percentage and the offensive rating. Unlike the team record data, this seems to suggest that the Nets’ offense is at its peak the more assists that J-Kidd earns, and that the number of non-Kidd assists is irrelevant. Part of the reason for this discrepancy, however, could be that the bench will get more playing time in blow-outs, and the Nets have been on the losing side of such games more often than the winning side.

"Big Four" Factors. The four primary factors that determine the outcome of a basketball game are: field goal percentage, offensive rebound percentage, turnovers, and the ability to get to the line and hit free throws. Offensive rebound percentage is measured as a percentage of rebound opportunities; turnovers are measured as a percentage of possessions; and free throws are measured by the percentage of time the team got to the line in relation to field goal shot attempts.

 New Jersey Lakers FG% 48.6% 45.1% OREB% 24.3% 25.0% TOV% 17.6% 15.4% FTA/FGA 41.7% 24.4%

And the effective field goal percentage:

 New Jersey 51.4% Lakers 52.4%

Nets came up just short in the eFG%, OREB%, and TOV%.

Scoring Possessions. This figure is an estimate of the number of times a team scores at least one point on a possession.

 New Jersey 45.4 Lakers 44

Field Percentage. This figure is an estimate of the percentage of times a team scores a basket on possessions where no free throws are awarded.

 New Jersey 44.7% Lakers 44.1%

Number of plays. This figure is an estimate of the number of times that a team both gains and loses control of the ball, either when the opposing team gains control or when a shot goes up.

 New Jersey 100 Lakers 104

Play percentage. This figure is an estimate of the percentage of a team’s plays on which it produces a scoring possession.

 New Jersey 45.4% Lakers 42.3%

Individual Statistics

New Jersey Nets

 Player Scoring Poss'ns Poss'ns. Floor% Offense Rating Points Prod. Points Scored % Tm Poss Plus/ Minus V. Carter 9.6 17.6 54.8% 115.8 20.4 21 22.8% -3 J. Kidd 6.8 14.8 46.2% 100.8 14.9 7 20.1% -2 R. Jefferson 6.2 14.1 44.2% 91.6 12.9 14 19.5% -5 J. Collins 3.4 6.4 53.9% 102.1 6.5 8 9.9% 2 N. Krstic 8.3 13.8 60.5% 124.7 17.2 20 19.8% 4 M. Williams 4.1 9.8 41.6% 96.4 9.4 14 29.3% -11 M. Moore 2.3 5.6 40.6% 71.2 4.0 5 20.8% -10 A. Wright 1.4 3.0 46.7% 89.5 2.7 1 16.2% -4 B. Nachbar 0.0 1.5 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0 11.0% -1 H. Adams 1.0 1.1 90.9% 164.7 1.8 3 15.7% 0 M. Ilic 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0.0% 0 J. Boone 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0.0% 0

LA Lakers

 Player Scoring Poss'ns Poss'ns. Floor% Offense Rating Points Prod. Points Scored % Tm Poss Plus/ Minus K. Bryant 11.0 25.0 44.2% 95.1 23.8 19 30.8% 3 S. Parker 5.6 10.3 54.0% 124.5 12.9 13 17.1% 1 L. Odom 8.9 19.3 45.8% 105.7 20.4 21 24.8% 4 L. Walton 4.1 6.3 65.1% 160.0 10.1 10 8.5% 2 A. Bynum 2.0 5.2 38.4% 85.2 4.4 3 13.8% 1 K. Brown 5.5 8.4 65.1% 130.0 10.9 13 17.3% 9 J. Farmar 2.6 5.6 47.4% 128.7 7.2 11 18.2% 5 M. Evans 2.1 4.5 45.5% 106.5 4.8 7 18.2% 4 V. Radmanovic 1.3 5.0 25.4% 54.1 2.7 2 31.0% 5 R. Turiaf 0.0 1.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0 22.2% -4 B. Cook 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0.0% 0 A. McKie 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0.0% 0

With a 91.6 offensive rating, RJ has now earned a rating under 100 as many times as he has over 100.

Another day at the office for Hassan.

Fourth time Vince has used less than 28% of the team possessions while on the floor. The Nets are 2-2 in such games.

These individual statistics are estimates based on the premise that teammates should share credit for points and scoring possessions based upon their individual contributions to each play. They are derived from the research of Dean Oliver, and more can be read in his book, "Basketball on Paper."

Glossary for Individual Statistics:

Scoring Possessions: A scoring possession is awarded to an individual when he contributes to a team scoring possession. If multiple players contribute, then credit is split among teammates based upon a formula.

Possessions: Number of team possessions used by a particular player.

Floor percentage: The percentage of a player’s possessions on which there is a scoring possession.

Offensive Rating: Points produced by an individual per 100 possessions, as calculated by a complex formula.

Points Produced: The number of points a player generates through various offensive contributions, including assists, field goals, free throws, and offensive rebounds.

Points Scored: Number of points actually scored by the player in the game, which is included here for comparison to points produced.

Percentage of Team Possessions: How often a player uses a team possession when he is in the game. With five players on the court, an average value would be 20%.

Plus/Minus: How much the team outscores the opposition when the player is in the game.