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Dumpy's Statistical Analysis: NJ at Seattle, November 20, 2006

Dumpy’s Statistical Analysis
November 20, 2006: Seattle 99, New Jersey 87

Team Statistics

Possessions. The number of possessions (i.e., each time a team brings the ball up court) is a way to measure the pace of the game. For games involving running or trapping teams, the number of possessions will be high, possibly more than 100. For more methodical teams, the number of possessions may be closer to 80. Possessions can (generally) end one of three ways: on a field goal attempt that is not rebounded by the offense (this includes successful FG attempts); on a turnover, or through some free throws. Since this is an estimate based upon various statistics, and because the number of possessions should be approximately the same for both teams, we also present the average estimated number of possessions.

New Jersey 90.6
Seattle 93.1
Average 91.8

About the same pace as when these teams last played.

Offensive Rating. A team’s offensive rating is just the number of points scored per 100 possessions. The opponent's offensive rating can be considered the team's Defensive Rating. For the past few seasons, the average team offensive rating in
the NBA has hovered around 105.

New Jersey 94.7
Seattle 107.8

After six straight games obtaining offensive ratings of at least 105, the Nets have now failed to surpass 95 for the last two. On the plus side, the 107.8 defensive rating was an improvement over the 132.5 from the earlier meeting between these teams. I’m sure you’re all dancing in the aisles.

Assist Percentage. The assist percentage measures the frequency that successful field goals have been assisted.

New Jersey 63.6%
Seattle 62.5%

"Big Four" Factors. The four primary factors that determine the outcome of a basketball game are: field goal percentage, offensive rebound percentage, turnovers, and the ability to get to the line and hit free throws. Offensive rebound percentage is measured as a percentage of rebound opportunities; turnovers are measured as a percentage of possessions; and free throws are measured by the percentage of time the team got to the line in relation to field goal shot attempts.

New Jersey Seattle
FG% 45.8% 42.7%
OREB% 30.3% 22.7%
TOV% 24.0% 16.3%
FTA/FGA 31.9% 45.3%

And the effective field goal percentage:

New Jersey 48.6%
Seattle 49.3%

Here’s a combination we haven’t seen before. The field goal and effective field goal percentages were about equal; the Nets won the battle of the boards; but Seattle’s ability to get to the line and the Nets’ failure to hold onto the ball was the difference in this one. In the fourth quarter, though, when Seattle pulled away, there was a different story: Both teams hit 8-of-11 from the line; and grabbed two offensive and eight defensive rebounds. However, the Nets committed five turnovers to Seattle’s one, and Seattle hit seven more field goals. We’ll look at the final quarter a little closer in a minute.

Scoring Possessions. This figure is an estimate of the number of times a team scores at least one point on a possession.

New Jersey 41.6
Seattle 44.6

Field Percentage. This figure is an estimate of the percentage of times a team scores a basket on possessions where no free throws are awarded.

New Jersey 40.6%
Seattle 40.2%

Number of plays. This figure is an estimate of the number of times that a team both gains and loses control of the ball, either when the opposing team gains control or when a shot goes up.

New Jersey 103.2
Seattle 103.6

Play percentage. This figure is an estimate of the percentage of a team’s plays on which it produces a scoring possession.

New Jersey 40.3%
Seattle 43.1%

Individual Statistics

New Jersey Nets

Player Scoring Poss'ns Poss'ns. Floor% Offense Rating Points Prod. Points Scored % Tm Poss Plus/ Minus
J. Kidd 4.9 12.6 38.7% 82.8 10.4 6 17.2% -18
V. Carter 11.8 28.9 41.0% 84.7 24.4 27 37.1% -9
J. Collins 2.0 6.0 32.8% 70.0 4.2 3 11.6% -5
A. Wright 5.6 10.4 53.5% 106.1 11.0 11 14.2% -19
N. Krstic 6.6 10.4 63.5% 126.6 13.2 16 20.7% -5
B. Nachbar 1.0 1.6 58.6% 163.4 2.7 3 9.4% 0
M. Williams 3.9 8.0 48.6% 106.2 8.5 8 25.1% 3
M. Moore 1.2 3.2 37.0% 74.0 2.3 4 9.8% 3
M. Ilic 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0.0% 0
H. Adams 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0.0% 0
C. Robinson 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0.0% 0
R. Jefferson 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0.0% --

Seattle Supersonics

Player Scoring Poss'ns Poss'ns. Floor% Offense Rating Points Prod. Points Scored % Tm Poss Plus/ Minus
R. Allen 10.9 18.5 59.1% 140.1 25.9 29 22.0% 12
L. Ridnour 6.8 14.9 45.8% 102.0 15.2 14 23.6% 8
R. Lewis 8.1 18.2 44.6% 107.7 19.6 20 23.2% 22
C. Wilcox 2.5 6.8 37.2% 77.4 5.3 4 10.3% 3
J. Petro 5.7 9.8 58.3% 120.3 11.8 12 17.4% 9
D. Wilkins 2.6 6.7 39.5% 85.9 5.7 6 17.7% 4
E. Watson 2.6 8.1 31.9% 83.0 6.7 5 21.8% 2
N. Collison 4.3 8.7 49.2% 97.6 8.5 9 24.2% 2
M. Gelabale 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0.0% -2
M. Wilks 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0.0% 0
R. Swift 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0.0% 0
D. Farmer 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0.0% 0

Carter used up 37.1% of the team possessions when on the floor, but that was a function of his eight (!) turnovers. Antoine Wright continues his decent play. He’s suffered a couple of flame-outs (Washington, Indiana), but other than that has been pretty consistent on the offensive end. In this game, Wright earned the first double-double of his career.

By my calculation, the starting unit finished at +7 when on the court together. Also, the Nets did fairly well when Mikki Moore was on the court with the starting unit. For most of the final quarter, though, the Nets went with a small lineup consisting of (1) Kidd; (2) Carter; (3) Wright; (4) Jefferson; and (5) either Collins or Krstic. Those lineups got demolished, finishing minus-13 in seven minutes and 15 seconds of play. Earlier in the game, though, combinations based on (1) Kidd or Marcus; (2-3) two of RJ, Wright, and Vince; (4) Mikki Moore; and (5) Collins or Krstic were much more successful. With just two fouls on the night, perhaps Coach Frank should have continued to use Mikki down the stretch. Moore played the first 1:42 of the fourth quarter, during which the Nets went plus-two, and then sat out the final ten-plus minutes, during which the Nets lost the lead and the game. Over his last five appearances, Mikki is a combined plus-five in 44.7 minutes, scoring twelve points in that span.

These individual statistics are estimates based on the premise that teammates should share credit for points and scoring possessions based upon their individual contributions to each play. They are derived from the research of Dean Oliver, and more can be read in his book, "Basketball on Paper."

Glossary for Individual Statistics:

Scoring Possessions: A scoring possession is awarded to an individual when he contributes to a team scoring possession. If multiple players contribute, then credit is split among teammates based upon a formula.

Possessions: Number of team possessions used by a particular player.

Floor percentage: The percentage of a player’s possessions on which there is a scoring possession.

Offensive Rating: Points produced by an individual per 100 possessions, as calculated by a complex formula.

Points Produced: The number of points a player generates through various offensive contributions, including assists, field goals, free throws, and offensive rebounds.

Points Scored: Number of points actually scored by the player in the game, which is included here for comparison to points produced.

Percentage of Team Possessions: How often a player uses a team possession when he is in the game. With five players on the court, an average value would be 20%.

Plus/Minus: How much the team outscores the opposition when the player is in the game.