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Dumpy's Statistical Analysis: NJ at Indiana, November 17, 2006

Dumpy’s Statistical Analysis
November 17, 2006: New Jersey 100, Indiana 91

The games are coming fast and furious, so let’s keep the discussion to a minimum today so I don’t lose my sanity.

Team Statistics

Possessions. The number of possessions (i.e., each time a team brings the ball up court) is a way to measure the pace of the game. For games involving running or trapping teams, the number of possessions will be high, possibly more than 100. For more methodical teams, the number of possessions may be closer to 80. Possessions can (generally) end one of three ways: on a field goal attempt that is not rebounded by the offense (this includes successful FG attempts); on a turnover, or through some free throws. Since this is an estimate based upon various statistics, and because the number of possessions should be approximately the same for both teams, we also present the average estimated number of possessions.

New Jersey 91.0
Indiana 94.0
Average 92.5

Fairly typical pace from what we’ve seen from the Nets recently.

Offensive Rating. A team’s offensive rating is just the number of points scored per 100 possessions. The opponent's offensive rating can be considered the team's Defensive Rating. For the past few seasons, the average team offensive rating in
the NBA has hovered around 105.

New Jersey 108.1
Indiana 98.4

Assist Percentage. The assist percentage measures the frequency that successful field goals have been assisted.

New Jersey 58.8%
Indiana 55.3%

"Big Four" Factors. The four primary factors that determine the outcome of a basketball game are: field goal percentage, offensive rebound percentage, turnovers, and the ability to get to the line and hit free throws. Offensive rebound percentage is measured as a percentage of rebound opportunities; turnovers are measured as a percentage of possessions; and free throws are measured by the percentage of time the team got to the line in relation to field goal shot attempts.

New Jersey Indiana
FG% 45.3% 43.7%
OREB% 25.0% 26.7%
TOV% 16.2% 16.2%
FTA/FGA 40.0% 17.2%

And the effective field goal percentage:

New Jersey 49.3%
Indiana 47.1%

Nets had a slightly higher field goal percentage, but the game was won at the stripe.

Scoring Possessions. This figure is an estimate of the number of times a team scores at least one point on a possession.

New Jersey 45.8
Indiana 43.0

Field Percentage. This figure is an estimate of the percentage of times a team scores a basket on possessions where no free throws are awarded.

New Jersey 43.0%
Indiana 43.2%

Another indication that the free throws were the difference.

Number of plays. This figure is an estimate of the number of times that a team both gains and loses control of the ball, either when the opposing team gains control or when a shot goes up.

New Jersey 102.0
Indiana 108

Play percentage. This figure is an estimate of the percentage of a team’s plays on which it produces a scoring possession.

New Jersey 44.9%
Indiana 39.9%

Once again reflecting the Nets’ strong defense.

Individual Statistics

New Jersey Nets

Player Scoring Poss'ns Poss'ns. Floor% Offense Rating Points Prod. Points Scored % Tm Poss Plus/ Minus
J. Kidd 8.8 19.7 44.8% 99.8 19.6 17 26.0% 7
V. Carter 11.5 22.3 51.4% 112.8 25.2 28 28.8% 8
J. Collins 4.2 6.1 68.3% 134.5 8.2 7 11.0% 4
A. Wright 1.2 4.4 26.8% 55.0 2.4 2 14.0% 1
N. Krstic 9.2 19.4 47.7% 97.9 19.0 18 29.8% 1
B. Nachbar 2.8 5.2 52.9% 123.8 6.5 8 9.2% 0
M. Williams 2.7 6.9 39.2% 95.9 6.6 6 18.7% 14
C. Robinson 4.7 5.4 86.5% 205.9 11.2 14 9.7% 5
M. Ilic 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0.0% 1
H. Adams 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0.0% 1
M. Moore 0.0 1.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0 13.7% 3
R. Jefferson 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0.0% --

Indiana Pacers

Player Scoring Poss'ns Poss'ns. Floor% Offense Rating Points Prod. Points Scored % Tm Poss Plus/ Minus
J. Tinsley 8.4 16.4 51.2% 103.4 16.9 16 21.8% -5
S. Jackson 4.2 11.2 37.9% 73.0 8.2 7 23.4% -2
D. Granger 5.3 13.0 40.6% 94.2 12.2 12 17.1% -11
J. O’Neal 8.2 17.9 46.1% 90.8 16.2 17 27.3% -4
A. Harrington 6.3 12.6 50.0% 114.8 14.4 18 26.0% -19
M. Daniels 6.3 11.8 52.9% 117.9 13.9 14 18.3% -7
J. Foster 2.3 4.8 49.1% 100.0 4.8 4 8.4% 6
D. Armstrong 1.3 3.0 42.8% 113.9 3.4 3 22.3% -2
M. Baston 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0.0% 6
S. Jasikevicius 0.0 2.1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0 42.8% -6
R. Marshall 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0.0% -6
J. Powell 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0.0% 0

This game was won by the power forwards: Jason Collins, Boki Nachbar, and especially Cliff Robinson, who produced the first 200+ offensive rating of the season on the strength of 14 points on just six shots, three assists, and not a single turnover. Collins, too, was strong, with two offensive rebounds, two assists, and just one missed field goal attempt. Jason Kidd’s rating was harmed by his team-high five turnovers. On the other side of the ledger, the low ratings earned by Indiana starters Granger, Jackson, and O’Neal reflect the strong all-around defensive performance.

These individual statistics are estimates based on the premise that teammates should share credit for points and scoring possessions based upon their individual contributions to each play. They are derived from the research of Dean Oliver, and more can be read in his book, "Basketball on Paper."

Glossary for Individual Statistics:

Scoring Possessions: A scoring possession is awarded to an individual when he contributes to a team scoring possession. If multiple players contribute, then credit is split among teammates based upon a formula.

Possessions: Number of team possessions used by a particular player.

Floor percentage: The percentage of a player’s possessions on which there is a scoring possession.

Offensive Rating: Points produced by an individual per 100 possessions, as calculated by a complex formula.

Points Produced: The number of points a player generates through various offensive contributions, including assists, field goals, free throws, and offensive rebounds.

Points Scored: Number of points actually scored by the player in the game, which is included here for comparison to points produced.

Percentage of Team Possessions: How often a player uses a team possession when he is in the game. With five players on the court, an average value would be 20%.

Plus/Minus: How much the team outscores the opposition when the player is in the game.