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Dumpy's Statistical Analysis: Miami at NJ, November 10, 2006

Dumpy’s Statistical Analysis
November 10, 2006—Miami 113, New Jersey 106

Sorry for the delay. In order to get this out as quickly as I can, I’ll refrain from many comments, and for the most part just present the stats. Obviously, the big story from this game was RJ’s injury. Beginning tonight, the rotation will start to look a little different, so in the future I’ll try to take a closer look at the different five-man units employed by Coach Frank. Here are the numbers:

Team Statistics

Possessions. The number of possessions—i.e., each time a team brings the ball up court—is a way to measure the pace of the game. For games involving running or trapping teams, the number of possessions will be high—possibly more than 100. For more methodical teams, the number of possessions may be closer to 80. Possessions can (generally) end one of three ways: on a field goal attempt that is not rebounded by the offense (this includes successful FG attempts); on a turnover, or through some free throws. Since this is an estimate based upon various statistics, and because the number of possessions should be approximately the same for both teams, we also present the average estimated number of possessions.

Miami 98.5
New Jersey 100.8
Average 99.7

A quick pace to this game—much quicker than one would expect for a game between these two clubs.

Offensive Rating. A team’s offensive rating is just the number of points scored per 100 possessions. The opponent's offensive rating can be considered the team's Defensive Rating. For the past few seasons, the average team offensive rating in
the NBA has hovered around 105.

Miami 113.4
New Jersey 106.3

Terrible defensive showing for the Nets.

Assist Percentage. The assist percentage measures the frequency that successful field goals have been assisted.

Miami 62.5%
New Jersey 63.9%

"Big Four" Factors. The four primary factors that determine the outcome of a basketball game are: field goal percentage, offensive rebound percentage, turnovers, and the ability to get to the line and hit free throws. Offensive rebound percentage is measured as a percentage of rebound opportunities; turnovers are measured as a percentage of possessions; and free throws are measured by the percentage of time the team got to the line in relation to field goal shot attempts.

Miami New Jersey
FG% 48.2% 48.0%
OREB% 15.4% 10.0%
TOV% 9.0% 16.1%
FTA/FGA 41.0% 46.7%

Not hard to see why the Nets lost here. While field goal percentage was essentially equivalent, the Nets lost the rebounding battle and committed far more turnovers. The teams were roughly the same from outside the arc as well. That’s something that I may start tracking in the future, given its importance to the outcome in the Utah game. Let me know your thoughts.

Scoring Possessions. This figure is an estimate of the number of times a team scores at least one point on a possession.

Miami 52.8
New Jersey 48.9

Field Percentage. This figure is an estimate of the percentage of times a team scores a basket on possessions where no free throws are awarded.

Miami 47.1%
New Jersey 41.5%

Number of plays. This figure is an estimate of the number of times that a team both gains and loses control of the ball, either when the opposing team gains control or when a shot goes up.

Miami 105.6
New Jersey 105.0

Play percentage. This figure is an estimate of the percentage of a team’s plays on which it produces a scoring possession.

Miami 50.0%
New Jersey 46.5%

Individual Statistics

Miami Heat

Player Scoring Poss'ns Poss'ns. Floor% Offense Rating Points Prod. Points Scored % Tm Poss Plus/ Minus
G. Payton 5.6 10.0 56.5% 147.6 14.7 16 12.5% 7
D. Wade 17.3 28.3 60.9% 127.4 36.1 34 33.4% 16
U. Haslem 12.4 17.0 73.0% 146.5 24.8 28 20.9% 26
A. Walker 6.0 14.0 42.8% 93.2 13.0 15 17.6% 11
S. O’Neal 7.7 15.4 49.7% 101.6 15.7 13 25.2% 4
J. Posey 2.6 5.3 49.2% 124.2 6.5 5 9.1% -1
D. Wright 0.0 4.2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0 14.4% -20
J. Kapono 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0 00.0% 5
A. Mourning 0.6 3.6 16.5% 33.1 1.2 2 25.4% -13
E. Barron 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0.0% --
W. Simien 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0.0% --
R. Hite 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0.0% --

Terrific offensive ratings up and down the Miami roster. The 146 rating from Haslem was significant here, as he completely dominated the game when he was on the court, as also evidenced by his +26 rating, the game high. The Nets must find an answer for Haslem if these teams meet in the playoffs. Payton and Posey also played very well. As noted before, it is easier to have a high offensive rating if you don’t have a significant role in the offense. It is still better than the alternative (see Robinson, Cliff).

New Jersey Nets

Player Scoring Poss'ns Poss'ns. Floor% Offense Rating Points Prod. Points Scored % Tm Poss Plus/ Minus
J. Kidd 7.7 17.2 45.1% 96.2 16.5 12 22.5% -19
V. Carter 12.4 25.6 48.4% 109.0 27.9 33 34.4% -13
J. Collins 0.7 1.7 40.0% 89.0 1.5 0 3.3% -5
R. Jefferson 5.5 10.2 54.2% 121.7 12.4 16 19.1% -6
N. Krstic 6.8 11.8 57.8% 111.7 13.1 12 16.0% -15
A. Wright 6.0 8.9 68.0% 153.2 13.6 16 15.6% 3
M. Williams 5.8 15.9 36.2% 77.9 12.4 10 35.9% 11
C. Robinson 1.1 4.8 23.8% 49.4 2.4 2 11.6% 5
B. Nachbar 1.8 3.6 49.8% 123.1 4.4 5 13.3% 5
M. Ilic 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0.0% --
H. Adams 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0.0% 0
J. Boone 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0.0% --

Two comments: (1) Note the high percentage of the team possessions used by Vince; over a third of the possessions during his 36 minutes of burn. (2) Tremendous performance by Antoine Wright off the bench, logging the highest rating in the game, and a +3 to boot. We need more of the same, Mr. Wright. Hopefully, he’ll start to have a greater role in the offense.

These individual statistics are estimates based on the premise that teammates should share credit for points and scoring possessions based upon their individual contributions to each play. They are derived from the research of Dean Oliver, and more can be read in his book, "Basketball on Paper."

Glossary for Individual Statistics:

Scoring Possessions: A scoring possession is awarded to an individual when he contributes to a team scoring possession. If multiple players contribute, then credit is split among teammates based upon a formula.

Possessions: Number of team possessions used by a particular player.

Floor percentage: The percentage of a player’s possessions on which there is a scoring possession.

Offensive Rating: Points produced by an individual per 100 possessions, as calculated by a complex formula.

Points Produced: The number of points a player generates through various offensive contributions, including assists, field goals, free throws, and offensive rebounds.

Points Scored: Number of points actually scored by the player in the game, which is included here for comparison to points produced.

Percentage of Team Possessions: How often a player uses a team possession when he is in the game. With five players on the court, an average value would be 20%.

Plus/Minus: How much the team outscores the opposition when the player is in the game.