Dumpy's Statistical Analysis - Games 35-42

I apologize for the length of time since the last Statistical Report. I’m happy to report, though, that I expect to post future entries on a more regular basis for at least the next few weeks. Anyway, today my goal is just to get everyone up to date on the efficiency and plus-minus ratings since my last blog entry, which happens to consist of the Nets’ last eight games. Sometime later this week I’ll summarize the totals for the month of January. In the meantime, I invite all of you to pose specific statistic-based questions that you would like answered, and if I find it interesting and have the tools, I’ll see what I can do.

To refresh everyone’s memory, the Nets have gone 3-5 in the past eight games, losing their last four. Those eight games included two home games and six away games, where they’ve been particularly ineffective in recent weeks. Once again, the Nets have shown that they struggle when one of their starters are either out of action or try to fight through an injury. In the case of the games addressed here, we can see how the numbers reflect Vince Carter’s back injury a few games ago. While he tried to play through the pain, we can see that the Nets were not the better for it. You can see the extreme drop-off in Carter’s efficiency ratings during the games in the middle of this span (you can see the drastic improvement in the last game, after a one-game layoff). Since Carter continued to play (with the exception of the Portland game), it would be difficult to try to determine which combinations that don’t include Carter have been most effective. It is interesting, though, to examine how much the plus-minus ratings for all the starters have declined across the board since Carter suffered his injury. As we’ve discussed, there is a degree of covariance between the plus-minus ratings of each player, and the fact that Carter was playing at less than 100% certainly would be expected to affect the numbers of his teammates. Anyway, here we go.

As usual, the raw stats come from www.popcornmachine.net, and may include minor errors. I did identify and correct one blatant error in the data. All mathematical errors in the "Total" tables are mine.

Indiana at New Jersey, January 16, 2006
Score: New Jersey 97, Indiana 92

New Jersey at Philadelphia, January 18, 2006
Score: New Jersey 101, Philadelphia 90

New Jersey at Boston, January 20, 2006
Score: Boston 99, New Jersey 96

Boston at New Jersey, January 21, 2006
Score: New Jersey 103, Boston 83

New Jersey at Utah, January 23, 2006
Score: Utah 89, New Jersey 78

New Jersey at LA Clippers, January 25, 2006
Score: Clippers 90, New Jersey 77

New Jersey at Portland, January 27, 2006
Score: Portland 88, New Jersey 83

New Jersey at Seattle, January 28, 2006
Score: Seattle 113, New Jersey 104

TOTALS: Last Eight Games
Average Score: Opponent 93, New Jersey 92.5

Per 48 Minutes: Last Eight Games

Quick Observations:

-- Scott Padgett’s numbers are inflated a bit due to his remarkable +25 earned in the second Boston game.

-- Linton Johnson’s minus-10/48 rating despite an efficiency rating nearly equal to Cliff Robinson’s is a bit alarming. Some of this is likely due to covariance with playing with other reserves, but I suspect his defense has something to do with it, also.

-- Lamond Murray was horrible before injuring his knee. He was just as bad in his one appearance since his return.

-- Before the last two games, Nenad Krstic appeared to be over his mini-slump, earning a solid efficiency rating up until then. Now I’m not so sure; among other things, his plus-minus rating is the worst among all the starters, despite playing most of his minutes with the "Big Three."

--Jason Collins earned the highest plus-minus rating among the starters each of the past three games.

-- Marc Jackson has played well in limited minutes.

-- It’s reaching the point where the best thing that can be said about Jacque Vaughn is that he is better than Jeff McInnis.

--Dumpy