I am so, tired of the mixed uncertainty regarding Andray Blatche, and his contract. Both Net Income and Ammar have done an excellent job of explaining why Andray Blatche is good bet to remain in Brooklyn, despite our salary restrictions, and his associated performance on the court.
Members of Nets Daily seem to misunderstand Blatche's contract structure, and continue to spread the notion that he is due a big raise, and we cannot afford to keep him.
Several posters keep spreading the notion, that Blatche is going to be offered a significantly larger contract than the Nets could offer (due to salary cap restrictions), and that he is due to leave the Nets as a result. I'm writing this post to clear up the uncertainty behind that false notion, in the hopes of elevating the conversation on Nets Daily on the subject matter of roster building. I'm tired of reading the Blatche is unlikely to stay. It is a completely false and ill-informed point of view, and I'm hoping to crush that theory once and for all.
The fact is, the Brookyn Nets stand an exceptional chance of re-signing Andray Blatche. Money, is highly unlikely to be an issue, for Andray Blatche this summer. For Blatche to have a significant decision to make based on Financial reasons, a competing team would have to offer Andray roughly a $40 Million dollar commitment. The fact is after this season Andray is due to receive amnesty payments from the Washington Wizards, of about $7.5M dollars per season through 2014-2015.
Now, without getting into the details of "cap math" because it's been discussed and ignored. So, I'm going to make it simple. A significant amount of whatever contract Blatche get's offered comes out of his Amnesty payments. Meaning for a contract to be significantly beneficial to Blatche, it will have to be in the ball park of 4 years and $40 Million. Given, 'Dray's off the court issues (including the Philadelphia incident this year), that is a heck of an investment to make on a player that has shown a history of character questions.
So for those previously unaware to these facts, understand that it will take a significant contract to lure Blatche away. A contract that is highly unlikely to be presented, given Blatche's history. Essentially the difference between Blatche getting paid the MLE next season, and the minimum next season, is about $2 Million dollars over one year.
If Blatche chooses to sign a one year contract with the Nets, he would have a no trade clause (mandated by the league to protect his pending bird rights), and could establish his early Bird Rights in the following season, becoming eligible for the Nets to offer him a major long term contract, at a higher rate than any other team.
Another notion to tackle in regards to Blatche is the commentary, that because Blatche cleared Amnesty waivers, his contract is tacked on to the amnesty payments, instead of taken out. This too, is false.
For a comparison, let's examine the case of Brandon Roy.
Andray Blatche's case is no different than that of Brandon Roy. So, for clarification purposes, let's say you think Andray Blatche is worth $8 Million/yr over 4 years (which is an unlikely offer, and the highest kind of offer that could even be considered), and you believe a team is willing to pay Andray that. The vet's minimum for Blatche based on years of service is about $1.1 Million (he's been in the league longer than Roy). So, subtract 1.1 from 8 and you get $6.9M. Than divide it by 2. You get $3.45M. Now take the $7.5Mish dollars Blatche is due next season, and subtract that $3.5M. You get $4M dollars. Now add that $4M to Blatche's unlikely $8M offer, and you get a $12M deal for 2013-2015, and an $8M contract in 2015-2017, coming to $40M total in 2017. The Nets could pay Blatche the minimum this year, where Blatche will make about $8M. Than using his early Bird Rights offer him a similar 3 year $8 Million dollar offer next season (or more), with another productive, and hopefully problem free season under his belt. That contract would be about $36 Million ending the same year.
So the question is do you think Blatche leave's the Nets for a contract that amounts to a $1 Million dollar a year difference? Do you think he's unlikely to stay with the team that salvaged him? Do you think that small difference in contracts would be enough for him to leave a team that is competitive, and that he's built friendships on?
I don't. It is UNLIKELY that Blatche does not re-sign with the Nets. I hope now everyone understands this.