FanPost

Winning a Top 3 pick and lottery team record

In the likelihood that the Nets miss the playoffs, what are chances of winning a Top 3 and keeping the pick? Other posts and articles have addressed the matter of probabilities. What I wanted to know was how teams in the past have fared in the lottery based on their ranking. Is there a ranking to “aim for” to increase the possibility of winning a Top 3? While of course the lotto balls may bounce completely differently that they have in the past, here’s a review of how lotto teams have fared in the past several years.

This review covers NBA drafts in the years 2004 to 2011. This 8-year period is not only a manageable sample size for somebody taking time to do a fanpost but also chosen because 2004 was the start of the 14-team lottery field (up from 13, with the expansion to a 30-team league).

I looked at the Top 3 winners as well as their ranking based on win-loss record and not on trades (for example, the 2011 3rd pick was won by the Nets even if that was sent to Utah, so it counts as having been won by the team with the 5th worst record, which was NJ). I won’t post the list I compiled here for brevity and anyway for the purpose of this fanpost, teams and players don’t matter since what I wanted to see was how teams, based on their backwards ranking (from worst win-loss record) lucked out on a Top 3 pick.

The following it lists a team’s ranking from the worst record, the number of times a team at that rank won a Top 3 pick in 2004-2011, and the type of Top 3 pick won.
1st = 3 (1 #1, 2 #2)
2nd = 3 (2 #2, 1 #3)
3rd = 2 (1 #1, 1 #3)
4th = 4 (4 #3)
5th = 7 (2 #1, 3 #2, 2 #3)
6th = 1 (1 #1)
7th = 2 (1 #1, 1 #2)
8th = 1 (1 #1)
9th = 1 (1 #1)
10th to 14th = 0

Some of the more interesting things you can see from above:

- By far, the luckiest spot has been the team with 5th worst record, having won a Top 3 seven times in eight years.

- The second luckiest to win a Top 3 pick are not the three worst teams, but the 4th worst, winning a Top 3 four times (everytime the 3rd).

- It’s often been said that having the worst record doesn’t guarantee the no. 1 pick. Well, it seems it doesn’t even guarantee a Top 3 pick. In 2004-2011, the league’s worst team won a Top 3 only three times, meaning the bottomest dweller slid to 4th pick, their worst possible, five times out of eight. Same’s true for 2nd worst.

- The boundaries of luck seem to reside at those ranked 8th and 9th, with each winning a Top 3 once in 8 years (although both times it was the big one with the #1). Also, the only other team ranking to win a Top 3 just once the past eight years is that at the 6th spot (also #1).

- How far is too far? The 10th-14th worst teams have not won a Top 3 since the start of the 14-team lotto field in 2004. Well, maybe there’s always a first time.

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