FanPost

Can we be a contender overpaying Lopez?

Let me start off first and foremost by saying that I like Lopez. Great guy, great attitude, loyal, nice etc... but we will never contend for anything with him if we overpay him.

I recently saw a lot of posts saying they would take Brook over Dirk. That is an absurd statement and here is why Brook's numbers are so deceiving:

If you look at Hoopdata, you can see the FG% based on distance from the RIM. So here is Brook Lopez last year (I won't use this year since it's limited) vs. Dirk this year (his #s have come off a bit vs. last)

At Rim

Player

M

A

FG%

%As

Brook Lopez

3.0

4.8

62.6

58.5

Dirk Nowitzki

1.2

1.9

64.9

54.2

3 – 9 Feet

Player

M

A

FG%

%As

Brook Lopez

2.5

5.4

47.0

58.0

Dirk Nowitzki

0.4

1.1

34.1

28.6

10 – 15 Feet

Player

M

A

FG%

%As

Brook Lopez

0.9

2.2

41.6

62.2

Dirk Nowitzki

1.7

4.2

41.4

52.2

16 – 23 Feet

Player

M

A

FG%

%As

Brook Lopez

1.4

3.6

39.0

86.1

Dirk Nowitzki

2.8

5.6

51.0

76.4

Threes

Player

M

A

FG%

%As

Brook Lopez

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Dirk Nowitzki

1.1

3.1

51.3

90.2


If you look at the stats, Dirk is a stretch-4. Everyone keeps talking about how Brook has that distance shot --- but he really doesn't. Brook's FG% from distance is not even comparable to Dirk (I'll give him a little bit in the 10-15ft range but given both their FG% there they shouldn't be shooting that shot to begin with) Dirk actually hits above average vs. all NBA players in the 16-23 ft range. It makes their PF have to come pretty far out to guard him as he needs to cover someone shooting 51% from that range and causes havok on the defense as it gives a lot of spacing down under.

Here's the KEY PROBLEM. Dirk is a PF, he has the lateral speed to guard PFs. You put him next to a Tyson Chandler who is a great defensive center with similar to Brook RIM FG% and you have a deadly pair.

Brook can NOT guard PFs. He would have real issues come out from the paint given his lateral speed and agility. He is a VERY GOOD scoring center when close to the RIM, but a liability on defense relative to other centers. That is the problem --- you can't really pair him up with anyone because if you choose a defensive-minded PF, they'll just pull their PF out and then you have a weakness in center defending the paint. Likewise you can't have him play PF because he can't guard them if they drive.

I like Brook, but to say he's the same as Dirk is non-sense. There is a reason he was ranked in the top 50 but not top-20. It is NOT because he's necessary bad, but he's an out of position player.

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