Let me start off first and foremost by saying that I like Lopez. Great guy, great attitude, loyal, nice etc... but we will never contend for anything with him if we overpay him.
I recently saw a lot of posts saying they would take Brook over Dirk. That is an absurd statement and here is why Brook's numbers are so deceiving:
If you look at Hoopdata, you can see the FG% based on distance from the RIM. So here is Brook Lopez last year (I won't use this year since it's limited) vs. Dirk this year (his #s have come off a bit vs. last)
|
|
At Rim |
|||
|
Player |
M |
A |
FG% |
%As |
|
Brook Lopez |
3.0 |
4.8 |
62.6 |
58.5 |
|
Dirk Nowitzki |
1.2 |
1.9 |
64.9 |
54.2 |
|
|
3 – 9 Feet |
|||
|
Player |
M |
A |
FG% |
%As |
|
Brook Lopez |
2.5 |
5.4 |
47.0 |
58.0 |
|
Dirk Nowitzki |
0.4 |
1.1 |
34.1 |
28.6 |
|
|
10 – 15 Feet |
|||
|
Player |
M |
A |
FG% |
%As |
|
Brook Lopez |
0.9 |
2.2 |
41.6 |
62.2 |
|
Dirk Nowitzki |
1.7 |
4.2 |
41.4 |
52.2 |
|
|
16 – 23 Feet |
|||
|
Player |
M |
A |
FG% |
%As |
|
Brook Lopez |
1.4 |
3.6 |
39.0 |
86.1 |
|
Dirk Nowitzki |
2.8 |
5.6 |
51.0 |
76.4 |
|
|
Threes |
|||
|
Player |
M |
A |
FG% |
%As |
|
Brook Lopez |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
Dirk Nowitzki |
1.1 |
3.1 |
51.3 |
90.2 |
If you look at the stats, Dirk is a stretch-4. Everyone keeps talking about how Brook has that distance shot --- but he really doesn't. Brook's FG% from distance is not even comparable to Dirk (I'll give him a little bit in the 10-15ft range but given both their FG% there they shouldn't be shooting that shot to begin with) Dirk actually hits above average vs. all NBA players in the 16-23 ft range. It makes their PF have to come pretty far out to guard him as he needs to cover someone shooting 51% from that range and causes havok on the defense as it gives a lot of spacing down under.
Here's the KEY PROBLEM. Dirk is a PF, he has the lateral speed to guard PFs. You put him next to a Tyson Chandler who is a great defensive center with similar to Brook RIM FG% and you have a deadly pair.
Brook can NOT guard PFs. He would have real issues come out from the paint given his lateral speed and agility. He is a VERY GOOD scoring center when close to the RIM, but a liability on defense relative to other centers. That is the problem --- you can't really pair him up with anyone because if you choose a defensive-minded PF, they'll just pull their PF out and then you have a weakness in center defending the paint. Likewise you can't have him play PF because he can't guard them if they drive.
I like Brook, but to say he's the same as Dirk is non-sense. There is a reason he was ranked in the top 50 but not top-20. It is NOT because he's necessary bad, but he's an out of position player.


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