Carlos Boozer

Reading Zach Lowe's piece on the NBA extensions got me to thinking more and more that Carlos Boozer is a probable target for this team sometime in the future. Lowe writes on the Taj Gibson deal:

The popular take on this will be that Jerry Reinsdorf’s next move is to cut Boozer with the amnesty provision. Maybe. Gibson’s deal leaves Chicago with about $75 million committed to nine players next season, including Boozer, their first-round pick, and a $1 million buyout for Rip Hamilton, who may be gone before then. Fielding a team with even minimum deals will take them up to at least $77 million or $78 million in payroll, meaning they’d be looking at an additional $6 million to $10 million in luxury tax payments — depending on their other roster moves and how far the tax line jumps from its $70.3 million level.

Total bill in this scenario: something like $85-$87 million.

Slice away Boozer’s $15.3 million salary, and they’re looking at about $60 million for eight players — and a final payroll around $65 million, with no tax penalties. But the Bulls would still have to pay Boozer, meaning their final bill in this amnesty scenario would be around $80 million — only $5 million or so less than in the non-amnesty scenario. Dumping Boozer would also free up the full mid-level exception again, but spending that on actual players would wipe the savings away totally.

Now seeing that amnesty is not really the way to go if you want to actually save a ton of money, dumping him for a big expiring contract in Kris Humphries could very well be the answer for the notoriously cheap Bulls. And this may not be all that bad.

Yes, Boozer is a bad defender, but Humphries is not exactly a stalwart in his own right. Boozer brings pretty much the same rebounding ability (career 18% rebound rate compared to Hump's career 18.1%) with a better offensive package both in the post and with his jump shot, with better shooting percentages from every spot of the floor:

FG% Since 2007:

At the rim - Humphries: 60.1%, Boozer: 68%

3-9 feet - Humphries: 37.7%, Boozer: 46.2%

10-15 feet - Humphries: 36.2%, Boozer: 42.3%

16-23 feet - Humphries: 39.1%, Boozer: 42.6%

Boozer is also the far better playmaker, with a career 13.7% assist rate compared to Humphries' career 6.5%. I don't know how much value one can really put in them, but Boozer also has the better career offensive and defensive rating than Humphries. And it helps that Boozer and Williams already have plenty of experience and chemistry together:

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