The Two Reasons We Shouldn't Fear the Lakers (RE: Dwight)
by Anthony Perez on Jan 17, 2012 9:59 PM EST
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PrintI still don't buy the REPORTED - and we all know agents/opposing GMs work reporters - Magic interest in Bynum & disinterest (and disrespect) for Brook Lopez. I think it’s somewhat posturing by their part to try to squeeze more out of us.
1) Bynum is inarguably better than Lopez, but Lopez is very good and though he finally suffered the first injury of his career, Bynum’s injury history is far SCARIER especially if you compare it to the data on the bigs whose careers have fizzled out after similar struggles in their first 6 seasons.
Bill Simmons did just that, analyzing the careers of all the notable bigs who’ve played in the last 35 years by how many games they played and how many games they missed. The list included Dwight Howard, Karl Malone, Tim Duncan, David Robinson, Kevin McHale, Charles Barkley, Dikembe Mutombo… etc you get the idea.
Here’s what he found:
What jumps out? First, the durable guys remained durable throughout their careers, with just one exception: McHale, who ruined the second half of his career by bravely (and some would say foolishly) playing on a broken foot in the 1987 playoffs. Second, anyone who missed more than 80 games and couldn’t play in 90 percent of the games in at least four of their first six seasons went on to have injury-plagued careers. And third, if you can’t stay on the court at your youngest/healthiest/freshest/most energetic, it’s a pretty safe bet that things won’t change as you get older.
It’s straight DNA: Some dudes are structurally built for 82-game NBA seasons, others aren’t. So if you make the argument "If Bynum can stay healthy, he’s a franchise center," just make sure you also mention that we have 35 years of evidence that there’s a tipping point when "If he can stay healthy …" becomes "… he’s not going to stay healthy." We’re there with Andrew Bynum. He’s not going to stay healthy. If I were the Lakers, I would trade him right now.
(Actually, what am I saying? They should definitely keep him! The guy is built like solid oak!)
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/110217
Are you really trading your franchise player for one of the least durable bigs in recent memory not named Greg Oden? And nothing else? What else are you going to get? Bad draft picks? No cap relief? Lord knows they’re not getting Gasol with him.
2) Plus, Bynum expires after next year. What if he doesn’t want to re-up either? Brook is a near guarantee from a health perspective, and Brook is a LOCK from a location perspective. He'd be in heaven in Orlando with Disney World and Ryan Anderson.
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Nobody knows for sure
I am just praying he comes in FA. I don’t want to trade for him
Good two points. Not too worried about the Lakers.
I have a question about a possible dream scenario for the Nets. Let’s say the Magic keep Dwight and try to win a championship with him one last time. Dwight becomes a FA and signs with the Nets and D-Will re-signs with the Nets. It has been reported that Josh Smith wants out of ATL and that the Nets are one of his four preferred teams, not to mention the fact that he and Dwight were very good friends growing up together and playing basketball together in Georgia. Secondly, it has also been reported that the Hawks would like to acquire a legit C so that they can move Horford to PF. Would it be possible to trade Brook for Josh Smith (maybe add a piece or two if need be to please the Hawks) at the deadline or do a sign and trade with Brook for Smith? Maybe I’m getting a little ahead of myself but just think of that potential lineup….
PG- D-Will
SG- Brooks
SF- Top 5 lottery pick
PF- J-Smoove (or a top 5 lottery pick in case we use Smith as SF)
C- Dwight
by Nets2410 on Jan 17, 2012 10:24 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
I wouldn't trade lopez for Smith
I’d much rather go for a twin towers with Deron, MarShon, Brook, and Dwight. There’s a reason Altanta wants to trade him, and many reasons that Atlanta fans want him traded.
Not only is Lopez home grown, but he’s a rare talent with his skillset. Let’s not forget that Lopez has modeled his game after Tim Duncan, who is a PF.
why would Lakers trade Bynum
he is theirs, he is having a better year so far than Howard and he’s two years younger.
everyone assumes that the Lakers will trade Bynum. I think it’s a long shot. Jim Buss has been arguing for years that Bynum could be among the top centers in the NBA. Why with Bynum having a break out year would they trade him.
I think the Magic roll the dice and don’t trade him, hoping that the lure of $27 million including a guaranteed extra year will make him change his mind in June. It’s risky but if they don’t like anything being offered, what’s the point?
"It's as sweet as it ever was, I'll tell you. Now, hopefully, we started something and we can win some more championships, but we're going to enjoy this one right now. Have a little champagne." --Julius Erving, May 12, 1976, ABA champion Nets locker room.
by Net Income on Jan 18, 2012 8:42 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Agreed. Orlando's best play is
to make a deep playoff run, show Dwight that LA doesnt want him.. and then dare him to leave for a team with one of the 5-7 worst records. Dwight certainly still could leave, but this puts him in a difficult spot.
Financially, the extra year, extra money from Bird rights, and tax savings make for an even larger income disparity. Some think Adidas has some pull here and can offer Dwight more money for going to a bigger market.
In theory, Dwight could also not opt out, and we could press reset on this process over the summer, right?
Could we trade Lopez’s rights (assuming he isnt extended) or include him in a sign and trade them for Dwight? I think we should be allowed to.
by orangeeater on Jan 18, 2012 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
can't trade someone who is without a contract
He couldn’t be traded until his signs either an offer sheet, extension, or QO
Wow
This is the first time I’ve seen your full opinion on the matter. I’m actually surprised that you think the Magic will actually try to hold onto him.
That’s best for us if you ask me.
by Anthony Perez on Jan 18, 2012 11:19 AM EST up reply actions
Trading Bynum
I think if Otis offered Howard for Bynum straight up +/- some crappy late picks, the Lakers still do it. Given Bynum’s injury history, it makes sense for them to make the deal. With Kobe towards the end of his career, it doesn’t make sense for them to trade more than just Bynum though. They can’t afford to deal Bynum & Gasol for Howard. More than anything, the Lakers need to add to their depth, not strip it away further. If Houston still wanted Gasol, I could see something along the lines of Scola & Lowry making some sense for the Lakers.
Conversely, while Bynum is a better solo piece than Lopez, I don’t think the Magic can afford to put all their eggs in a single (with a history of injuries) basket. They need multiple pieces to hedge against disaster in any Howard trade. Utah got Favors, the #3 pick & likely an additional lottery pick. The Nuggets got Gallinari, Mozgov, Chandler & Felton. That way even if one of the asets you bring in goes bust with injuries, at least you still have something to show for dealing your star.
Partially agree.
I agree Lakers won’t trade Bynum and that the Magic don’t really want Bynum, straight up, as Bynum also has an option, making it too risky. I believe the Magic will trade Howard to his number 1 choice and are waiting to see if the number 1 choice can improve on the deal when additional free agents and/or when the value of the picks increases. Howard only goes to option 2 and 3 when option 1 is no longer possible. Howard already knows where he will be playing next year.
exactly
so that guarantees him in Orlando only for a single full season. It’ll be a season filled with rumors all over again! Plus with the new CBA, Bynum wouldn’t extend but rather become an UFA 1st, like Deron and Dwight are doing.
I don't think...
Mickey Mouse should be regarded as an asset to lure Lopez towards Orlando.
for the right of watching tv broadcasted nets games...
i realize that bynum is not howard
but if i’m the lakers, my primary focus is to get a legit PG. they don’t even need a top PG – someone of the caliber of mo williams. kobe + pau + bynum + a good PG is a legitimate contender
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