The Two Reasons We Shouldn't Fear the Lakers (RE: Dwight)

I still don't buy the REPORTED - and we all know agents/opposing GMs work reporters - Magic interest in Bynum & disinterest (and disrespect) for Brook Lopez. I think it’s somewhat posturing by their part to try to squeeze more out of us.

1) Bynum is inarguably better than Lopez, but Lopez is very good and though he finally suffered the first injury of his career, Bynum’s injury history is far SCARIER especially if you compare it to the data on the bigs whose careers have fizzled out after similar struggles in their first 6 seasons.

Bill Simmons did just that, analyzing the careers of all the notable bigs who’ve played in the last 35 years by how many games they played and how many games they missed. The list included Dwight Howard, Karl Malone, Tim Duncan, David Robinson, Kevin McHale, Charles Barkley, Dikembe Mutombo… etc you get the idea.

Here’s what he found:

What jumps out? First, the durable guys remained durable throughout their careers, with just one exception: McHale, who ruined the second half of his career by bravely (and some would say foolishly) playing on a broken foot in the 1987 playoffs. Second, anyone who missed more than 80 games and couldn’t play in 90 percent of the games in at least four of their first six seasons went on to have injury-plagued careers. And third, if you can’t stay on the court at your youngest/healthiest/freshest/most energetic, it’s a pretty safe bet that things won’t change as you get older.

It’s straight DNA: Some dudes are structurally built for 82-game NBA seasons, others aren’t. So if you make the argument "If Bynum can stay healthy, he’s a franchise center," just make sure you also mention that we have 35 years of evidence that there’s a tipping point when "If he can stay healthy …" becomes "… he’s not going to stay healthy." We’re there with Andrew Bynum. He’s not going to stay healthy. If I were the Lakers, I would trade him right now.

(Actually, what am I saying? They should definitely keep him! The guy is built like solid oak!)

Are you really trading your franchise player for one of the least durable bigs in recent memory not named Greg Oden? And nothing else? What else are you going to get? Bad draft picks? No cap relief? Lord knows they’re not getting Gasol with him.

2) Plus, Bynum expires after next year. What if he doesn’t want to re-up either? Brook is a near guarantee from a health perspective, and Brook is a LOCK from a location perspective. He'd be in heaven in Orlando with Disney World and Ryan Anderson.

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