FanPost

The Statistics of Options at Shooting Guard

 

In a follow up to my last post on the options at the 3 spot for the Nets, I think that most here can agree that the Shooting Guard is another position in need of an upgrade. 

So I went through a list of the shooting guards available and I came up with this list of the names that caught my eye that may be able to help the Nets. 

All statistics used will be taken from the 2010-2011 season. Most of the blurbs about stats are from Basketball-Reference. The statistics are also accurate as of  March 28, 2011.

 

Leandro Barbosa - Player Option

Rodney Stuckey - RFA

Jason Richardson - UFA

Jamal Crawford - UFA

Arron Afflalo - RFA

Shannon Brown - Player Option

J.R. Smith - UFA

Nick Young - RFA

Marcus Thornton - RFA

 

Let's see if they will. You can skip to my conclusions at the end if you do not feel like wading through statistics.

 

1. Age - Age is a factor that definitely needs to be considered when signing a free agent to a contract of significant length.

  1. Marcus Thornton - 23 Years 296 Days - 5
  2. Rodney Stuckey - 24 Years 341 Days - 4
  3. Shannon Brown - 25 Years 119 Days - 3
  4. Arron Afflalo - 25 Years 164 Days - 3
  5. J.R. Smith - 25 Years 200 Days - 3
  6. Nick Young - 25 Years 300 Days - 3
  7. Leandro Barbosa - 28 Years 120 Days - 2
  8. Jason Richardson - 30 Years 67 Days - 1
  9. Jamal Crawford - 31 Years 8 Days - 1

2. 2010-2011 Salary - This will not reflect the salary the player receives so I will not factor it into my analysis, but it is interesting to note.

  1. Marcus Thornton - 0.8 Million
  2. Arron Afflalo - 2.0 Million
  3. Shannon Brown - 2.1 Million
  4. Nick Young - 2.6 Million
  5. Rodney Stuckey - 2.8 Million
  6. J.R. Smith - 6.0 Million
  7. Leandro Barbosa - 7.1 Million
  8. Jamal Crawford - 10.1 Million
  9. Jason Richardson - 14.4 Million

3. Points Per Game - Used in "A" Rankings

  1. Nick Young - 17.4 PTS - 5
  2. Jason Richardson - 15.9 PTS - 4
  3. Rodney Stuckey - 14.8 PTS - 3
  4. Jamal Crawford - 14.1 PTS - 3
  5. Leandro Barbosa - 13.1 PTS - 2
  6. Arron Afflalo - 12.6 PTS - 2 
  7. J.R. Smith - 12.1 PTS - 2
  8. Marcus Thornton - 11.6 PTS - 2
  9. Shannon Brown - 9.0 PTS - 1

4. Points Per 36 Minutes - Used in "B" Rankings

  1. Nick Young - 19.7 PTS - 5
  2. Leandro Barbosa - 19.6 PTS - 5
  3. Marcus Thornton - 19.2 PTS - 5
  4. J.R. Smith - 17.7 PTS - 4
  5. Rodney Stuckey - 17.4 PTS - 4
  6. Jason Richardson - 17.0 PTS - 4
  7. TIE Shannon Brown & Jamal Crawford - 16.7 PTS - 3
  8. (9) Arron Afflalo - 13.3 PTS - 1

5. Rebounds Per Game - Used in "A" Rankings

  1. Jason Richardson - 4.3 REB - 5
  2. J.R. Smith - 4.1 REB - 5
  3. Arron Afflalo - 3.6 REB - 4
  4. Marcus Thornton - 3.2 REB - 4
  5. Rodney Stuckey - 3.0 REB - 4
  6. Nick Young - 2.7 REB - 3
  7. Shannon Brown - 2.0 REB - 1
  8. TIE Leandro Barbosa & Jamal Crawford - 1.7 REB -1

6.  Rebounds Per 36 Minutes - Used in "B" Rankings

  1. J.R. Smith - 6.0 REB - 5
  2. Marcus Thornton - 5.3 REB - 5
  3. Jason Richardson - 4.6 REB - 4
  4. Arron Afflalo - 3.8 REB - 3
  5. Shannon Brown - 3.7 REB - 3
  6. Rodney Stuckey - 3.6 REB - 3
  7. Nick Young - 3.1 REB - 2
  8. Leandro Barbosa - 2.5 REB - 1
  9. Jamal Crawford - 2.0 REB - 1

7. TRB% - Total Rebound Percentage the formula is 100 * (TRB * (Tm MP / 5)) / (MP * (Tm TRB + Opp TRB)). Total rebound percentage is an estimate of the percentage of available rebounds a player grabbed while he was on the floor.

  1. J.R. Smith - 9.6% - 5
  2. Marcus Thornton - 8.8% - 4
  3. Jason Richardson - 7.4% - 3
  4. Arron Afflalo - 6.2% - 3
  5. Rodney Stuckey - 6.0% - 3
  6. Shannon Brown - 5.9% - 3
  7. Nick Young - 4.9% - 2
  8. Leandro Barbosa - 4.1% - 2
  9. Jamal Crawford - 3.3% - 1

8. Player Efficiency Rating - http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/per.html

  1. Rodney Stuckey - 17.7 - 5
  2. Marcus Thornton - 17.0 - 5
  3. J.R. Smith - 16.5 - 4
  4. Jason Richardson - 15.3 - 3
  5. Leandro Barbosa - 14.9 - 3
  6. Shannon Brown - 14.5 - 3
  7. Nick Young - 14.4 - 3
  8. Jamal Crawford - 14.0 - 2
  9. Arron Afflalo - 13.5 - 1

9. Defensive Rating - The formula is: Defensive Rating = (Opponent's Points Allowed/ Opponent's Possessions) x 100. The result is the expected amount of points that an individual player will allow on defense over 100 possessions.

  1. TIE J.R. Smith, Jason Richardson & Shannon Brown - 106 - 5
  2. (4) Marcus Thornton - 107 - 5
  3. (5) Jamal Crawford - 110 - 3
  4. (6) Arron Afflalo - 111 - 3
  5. (7) Rodney Stuckey - 113 - 1
  6. (8) TIE Leandro Barbosa & Nick Young - 114 - 1

10. Win Shares - http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html

  1. Jason Richardson - 6.4 - 5
  2. Arron Afflalo - 5.9 - 5
  3. J.R. Smith - 4.3 - 4
  4. Rodney Stuckey - 3.4 - 3
  5. TIE Shannon Brown, Marcus Thornton & Jamal Crawford - 3.1 - 3
  6. (8) Nick Young - 2.6 - 2
  7. (9) Leandro Barbosa - 1.4 - 1

11. Win Shares/48

  1. Jason Richardson - 0.127 - 5
  2. Arron Afflalo - 0.124 - 5
  3. J.R. Smith - 0.120 - 5
  4. Marcus Thornton - 0.108 - 4
  5. Shannon Brown - 0.105 - 4
  6. Rodney Stuckey - 0.100 - 3
  7. Jamal Crawford - 0.071 - 2
  8. Nick Young  - 0.060 - 1
  9. Leandro Barbosa - 0.050 - 1

12. Field Goal Percentage

  1. Arron Afflalo - 49.6% - 5
  2. Jason Richardson - 44.8%  - 3
  3. Leandro Barbosa - 44.4% - 3
  4. Nick Young - 44.1% - 3
  5. Marcus Thornton - 43.8% - 2
  6. J.R. Smith - 43.4% - 2 
  7. Shannon Brown - 43.3% - 2
  8. Rodney Stuckey  - 43.0% - 2
  9. Jamal Crawford - 41.5% - 1

For this next section of stats involving shooting percentages from certain spots on the floor, the numbers in parentheses on the right of the names of the players represent the amount of shot attempts per game that each player takes from the specified distance on the offensive end.

13. Field Goal Percentage For Shots "At Rim" -

  1. Shannon Brown (1.9) - 66.7% - 5
  2. Jason Richardson (3.1) - 66.5% - 5
  3. Arron Afflalo (2.3) - 66.4% - 5
  4. Leandro Barbosa (4.4) - 62.5% - 4
  5. TIE Nick Young (1.8) & Marcus Thornton (2.5) - 62.2% - 4
  6. (7) J.R. Smith (2.1) - 58.9% - 3
  7. (8) Jamal Crawford (1.9) - 56.9% - 2
  8. (9) Rodney Stuckey (4.8) - 55.3% - 1

14. Field Goal Percentage For Shots 3-9 Feet Away

  1. Arron Afflalo (0.9) - 52.4% - 5
  2. Shannon Brown (0.6) - 48.8% - 4
  3. Jamal Crawford (1.1) - 37.1% - 3
  4. Jason Richardson (1.3) - 37.0% - 3
  5. Nick Young (0.8) - 36.5% - 3
  6. Rodney Stuckey (1.6) - 34.7% - 2
  7. Marcus Thornton (1.3) - 32.5% - 2
  8. Leandro Barbosa (0.8) - 29.5% - 1
  9. J.R. Smith (1.0) - 25.8% -1

15. Field Goal Percentage For Shots 10-15 Feet Away

  1. Arron Afflalo (0.7) - 52.3% - 5
  2. Jamal Crawford (0.8) - 44.2% - 4
  3. Marcus Thornton (0.8) - 41.7% - 4
  4. Leandro Barbosa (0.3) - 41.2% - 4
  5. Nick Young (2.1) - 39.1% - 3
  6. Rodney Stuckey (1.0) - 35.6% - 3
  7. Shannon Brown (0.4) - 32.1% - 3
  8. Jason Richardson (0.5) - 30.8% - 2
  9. J.R. Smith (0.3) - 29.2% - 2

16. Field Goal Percentage For Shots 16-23 Feet Away

  1. J.R. Smith (2.4) - 47.0% - 5
  2. Nick Young (5.7) - 46.0% - 5
  3. Jamal Crawford (3.2) - 45.0% - 5
  4. Arron Afflalo (1.6) - 39.0% - 4
  5. Jason Richardson (2.4) - 37.0% - 3
  6. Rodney Stuckey (2.8) - 36.0% - 3
  7. Marcus Thornton (2.4) - 35.9% - 3
  8. Shannon Brown (2.3) - 34.0% - 2
  9. Leandro Barbosa (1.3) - 31.0% -1

17. 3-Point Field Goal Percentage

  1. Arron Afflalo (3.6) - 42.6% - 5
  2. Marcus Thornton (2.9) - 40.3% - 4
  3. Jason Richardson (6.0) - 40.0% - 4
  4. J.R. Smith (3.9) - 38.8% - 3
  5. Nick Young (4.3) - 38.7% - 3
  6. Shannon Brown (2.7) - 35.0% - 2
  7. TIE Leandro Barbosa (3.8) & Jamal Crawford (4.6) - 33.8% - 2
  8. (9) Rodney Stuckey (1.2) - 28.8% - 1

18. Percentage of Field Goals Assisted -

The formula is (Assisted Field Goals Made / FG) x 100. It helps to see which players create for themselves as opposed to those players who score most of their points off of assists from others. The league average for this season is 59.9%. For reference, Deron Williams had a 41.7% rating with Utah and a 27.8% rating with the Nets whereas Kris Humphries has a 72.5% rating because he scores mostly off of alley-oops and pick and pops.

  1. Rodney Stuckey - 40.1% - 5
  2. Jamal Crawford - 44.3% - 4
  3. Marcus Thornton  - 50.5% - 3
  4. Leandro Barbosa - 50.0% - 3
  5. J.R. Smith - 52.2% - 3
  6. Nick Young - 61.5% - 2.5
  7. Shannon Brown - 66.9% - 2
  8. Jason Richardson - 69.9% - 2
  9. Arron Afflalo - 71.3% - 1
  10. Jason Richardson - 72.9% - 1

19. Effective Field Goal Percentage - 

Effective Field Goal Percentage - The formula is (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA. This statistic adjusts for the fact that a 3-point field goal is worth one more point than a 2-point field goal. For example, suppose Player A goes 4 for 10 with 2 threes, while Player B goes 5 for 10 with 0 threes. Each player would have 10 points from field goals, and thus would have the same effective field goal percentage (50%).

  1. Arron Afflalo - 58.1% - 5
  2. Jason Richardson - 53.9% - 4
  3. J.R. Smith - 51.2% - 3
  4. Leandro Barbosa - 50.2% - 3
  5. TIE Marcus Thornton & Nick Young - 49.7% - 3
  6. (7) Shannon Brown - 49.2% - 3
  7. (8) Jamal Crawford - 48.3% - 2 
  8. (9) Rodney Stuckey - 44.6% - 1

20. True Shooting Percentage -  
True Shooting Percentage; the formula is PTS / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA)). True shooting percentage is a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws.

  1. Arron Afflalo - 62.0% - 5
  2. Jason Richardson - 56.0% - 4
  3. J.R. Smith - 54.9% - 4
  4. Jamal Crawford - 54.0% - 3
  5. Nick Young - 53.8% - 3
  6. Leandro Barbosa - 53.7% - 3
  7. TIE Marcus Thornton & Rodney Stuckey - 53.4% - 2
  8. (9) Shannon Brown - 52.8% - 1

21. Usage Percentage -

Usage percentage is an estimate of the percentage of plays that a player used while he was on the floor, where a play is defined to be a combination of field goal attempts, free throw attempts and turnovers. If a team distributed its plays equally among all of its players, then each individual would have a usage percentage of 20 percent.

  1. Arron Afflalo - 14.7% - 5
  2. Jason Richardson - 20.9% - 4
  3. J.R. Smith - 22.2% - 4
  4. Shannon Brown - 22.3% - 4
  5. Jamal Crawford - 23.3% - 3
  6. Rodney Stuckey - 24.4% - 2
  7. Nick Young - 24.5% - 2
  8. Marcus Thornton - 25.1% - 1
  9. Leandro Barbosa - 25.2% - 1

22. Blocks Per Game - Used in "A" Rankings

  1. Arron Afflalo - 0.5 BLK - 5
  2. TIE Shannon Brown, Nick Young, Jason Richardson, J.R. Smith, Jamal Crawford - 0.2 BLK - 3
  3. (7) Marcus Thornton, Rodney Stuckey & Leandro Barbosa - 0.1 BLK - 1

23. Blocks Per 36 Minutes - Used in "B" Rankings

  1. Arron Afflalo - 0.5 BLK - 5
  2. Shannon Brown - 0.4 BLK - 4
  3. TIE Nick Young & J.R. Smith - 0.3 BLK - 3
  4. TIE Jason Richardson, Jamal Crawford, Rodney Stuckey, Marcus Thornton & Leandro Barbosa - 0.2 BLK - 1

24. Steals Per Game - Used in "A" Rankings

  1. J.R. Smith - 1.2 STL - 5
  2. TIE Jason Richardson & Rodney Stuckey - 1.1 STL - 5
  3. (4) TIE Shannon Brown & Leandro Barbosa - 0.9 STL - 3
  4. (6) TIE Marcus Thornton & Jamal Crawford - 0.8 STL - 3
  5. (8) Nick Young - 0.7 STL - 1
  6. Arron Afflalo - 0.5 STL - 1

25. Steals Per 36 Minutes - Used in "B" Rankings

  1. J.R. Smith - 1.7 STL - 5
  2. Shannon Brown - 1.6 STL - 5
  3. TIE Rodney Stuckey, Marcus Thornton & Leandro Barbosa - 1.3 STL - 3
  4. (6) Jason Richardson - 1.1 STL - 2
  5. (7) Jamal Crawford - 1.0 STL - 2
  6. (8) Nick Young - 0.7 STL - 1
  7. (9) Arron Afflalo - 0.5 STL - 1

26. Assist Percentage - Assist Percentage; the formula is 100 * AST / (((MP / (Tm MP / 5)) * Tm FG) - FG). Assist percentage is an estimate of the percentage of teammate field goals a player assisted while he was on on the floor.

  1. Rodney Stuckey - 26.2% - 5
  2. Jamal Crawford - 17.4% - 4
  3. Leandro Barbosa - 14.3% - 3
  4. J.R. Smith - 14.2% - 3
  5. Marcus Thornton - 13.0% - 3
  6. Arron Afflalo - 10.7% - 2
  7. Shannon Brown - 9.9% - 2
  8. Jason Richardson - 8.8% - 2
  9. Nick Young - 6.6% - 1

THIS IS THE END OF THE POST FOR THOSE WHO DO NOT WANT  TO LOOK AT ALL OF THE STATISTICS: 

In the comments of my post on the options at Small Forward, it was pointed out to me that my previous rankings were flawed. To assign a point value based on the ranking in each list is silly because, in some situations, the difference is negligible. For example, Barbosa has a 14.3% AST% while J.R. has a 14.2% AST%. There is hardly a difference. 

So, this time, I am going to assign points to each starting at the bottom of each list. If a player is at the bottom of the list, he will receive one point for that slot. If the next player up is significantly higher statistically, he will receive a 2, if not he will receive a 1 as well. You can see the points value in each list. Each ranking will vary from 1-5 points.

"A" Rankings - This Ranking Uses Basic Points, Steals, Blocks and Rebounds 

  1. Jason Richardson - 74.5
  2. TIE J.R. Smith & Arron Afflalo - 74 Points
  3. (4) Marcus Thornton - 66 Points
  4. (5) TIE Rodney Stuckey & Shannon Brown - 59 Points
  5. (7) Nick Young - 56.5 Points
  6. (8) Jamal Crawford - 55 Points
  7. (9) Leandro Barbosa - 45 Points

"B" Rankings - This Ranking Uses Points, Steals, Blocks and Rebounds Per 36 Minutes

  1. J.R. Smith - 76 Points
  2. Arron Afflalo - 72 Points
  3. Marcus Thornton - 70 Points
  4. Jason Richardson - 68.5 Points
  5. Shannon Brown - 66 Points
  6. Rodney Stuckey - 57 Points
  7. Nick Young - 55.5 Points
  8. Jamal Crawford - 52 Points
  9. Leandro Barbosa - 48 Points

Conclusions:

  • The Rankings are the least consequential part of this post. Afflalo gained 20 something points just from being a good shooter. They are interesting to look at, but they cannot be accurately used on their own.
  • J.R. Smith is a good option at the 2-guard. He can do a little bit of everything. I do not however think that he stands out from the other candidates so much as to negate the problems he would have in the Newark area. That is just my opinion though.
  • Marcus Thornton is a beast. He is near the top of the rankings despite the fact that his stats were lowered tremendously by his time in New Orleans. I would love to have him on the Nets. He can create his own shot and score at will.
  • Arron Afflalo has been overrated by many on here. He is merely a spot up shooter. He is Anthony Morrow with better defense. He is still a good player, but not for a sizable contract.
  • Jason Richardson's stats are slightly inflated because of playing time and he can still score, but considering his age, there are better options for the Nets.
  • Shannon Brown is a good role player and would fill the highlight reel, but a starting 2-guard he is not.
  • Rodney Stuckey is a mediocre option. He can create his own shot and get others involved, but he is a poor shooter, a mediocre scorer, and his playmaking abilities are not a necessity.
  • Please, please let someone else overpay Jamal Crawford.
  • Leandro Barbosa was not worth the time I spent looking up his stats in the slightest.

After all of this, I would not be opposed to Richardson or Smith at the 2-guard, but I believe that Thornton is by far the best option.
What do you guys think?
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