FanPost

The Statistics of Options at Small Forward

I think that most here can agree that the weakest position for the Nets right now is the Small Forward. So I am going to see which of the options in free agency for said position are the best based on statistics.

So I went through a list of the small forwards available and I came up with this list of the names that caught my eye that may be able to help the Nets. 

All statistics used will be taken from the 2010-2011 season. Most of the blurbs about stats are from Basketball-Reference. The statistics are also accurate as of March 20, 2011.

 

Wilson Chandler - RFA

Caron Butler - UFA

Thaddeus Young - RFA

Tayshaun Prince - UFA

Shane Battier - UFA

Andrei Kirilenko - UFA

Jeff Green - RFA

 

Let's see if they will. You can skip to my conclusions at the end if you do not feel like wading through statistics.

 

1. Age - Age is a factor that definitely needs to be considered when signing a free agent to a contract of significant length.

  1. Thaddeus Young - 22 Years 272 Days
  2. Wilson Chandler - 23 Years 314 Days
  3. Jeff Green - 24 Years 204 Days
  4. Andrei Kirilenko - 30 Years 30 Days
  5. Caron Butler - 31 Years 7 Days
  6. Tayshaun Prince - 31 Years 20 Days
  7. Shane Battier - 32 Years 192 Days

2. 2010-2011 Salary - This will not reflect the salary the player receives so I will not factor it into my analysis, but it is interesting to note.

  1. Wilson Chandler - 2.1 Million
  2. Thaddeus Young - 2.9 Million 
  3. Jeff Green - 4.5 Million 
  4. Shane Battier 7.4 Million 
  5. Caron Butler 10.8 Million 
  6. Tayshaun Prince - 11.1 Million 
  7. Andrei Kirilenko - 17.8 Million 

3. Points Per Game - Used in "A" Rankings

  1. Wilson Chandler - 16.1 PTS
  2. Caron Butler - 15.0 PTS
  3. Jeff Green - 14.5 PTS
  4. Tayshaun Prince - 14.4 PTS
  5. Thaddeus Young - 12.2 PTS 
  6. Andrei Kirilenko - 12.0 PTS
  7. Shane Battier - 8.0 PTS

4. Points Per 36 Minutes - Used in "B" Rankings

  1. Caron Butler - 18.1 PTS
  2. TIE Wilson Chandler & Thaddeus Young - 17.0 PTS
  3. (4) Tayshaun Prince - 15.6 PTS
  4. (5) Jeff Green - 15.2 PTS
  5. (6) Andrei Kirilenko - 13.5 PTS
  6. (7) Shane Battier - 9.7 PTS

5. Rebounds Per Game - Used in "A" Rankings

  1. Wilson Chandler - 5.8 REB
  2. TIE Andrei Kirilenko & Thaddeus Young - 5.3 REB
  3. (4) Jeff Green - 4.9 REB
  4. (5) Shane Battier - 4.7 REB
  5. (6) Tayshaun Prince - 4.5 REB
  6. (7) Caron Butler - 4.1 REB

6.  Rebounds Per 36 Minutes - Used in "B" Rankings

  1. Thaddeus Young - 7.4 REB
  2. Wilson Chandler - 6.2 REB
  3. Andrei Kirilenko - 5.9 REB
  4. Shane Battier - 5.6 REB
  5. Jeff Green - 5.2 REB
  6. TIE Tayshaun Prince & Caron Butler - 4.9 REB

7. TRB% - Total Rebound Percentage the formula is 100 * (TRB * (Tm MP / 5)) / (MP * (Tm TRB + Opp TRB)). Total rebound percentage is an estimate of the percentage of available rebounds a player grabbed while he was on the floor.

  1. Thaddeus Young - 11.5%
  2. Andrei Kirilenko - 9.9%
  3. Wilson Chandler - 9.8%
  4. Shane Battier - 9.0%
  5. Jeff Green - 8.5%
  6. Tayshaun Prince - 8.2%
  7. Caron Butler - 8.0%

8. Player Efficiency Rating - http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/per.html

  1. Thaddeus Young - 18.0
  2. Andrei Kirilenko - 16.6
  3. Wilson Chandler - 15.5
  4. Tayshaun Prince - 15.2
  5. Caron Butler - 14.3
  6. Jeff Green - 12.7
  7. Shane Battier - 12.5

9. Defensive Rating - The formula is: Defensive Rating = (Opponent's Points Allowed/ Opponent's Possessions) x 100. The result is the expected amount of points that an individual player will allow on defense over 100 possessions.

  1. Thaddeus Young - 104
  2. Caron Butler - 107
  3. TIE Andrei Kirilenko, Jeff Green, & Shane Battier - 109
  4. (6) Wilson Chandler - 110
  5. (7) Tayshaun Prince - 115

10. Win Shares - http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html

  1. Thaddeus Young - 5.1
  2. Andrei Kirilenko - 4.4
  3. Shane Battier - 4.1
  4. Wilson Chandler - 3.9
  5. Jeff Green - 3.5
  6. Tayshaun Prince - 2.5
  7. Caron Butler - 1.1

11. Field Goal Percentage

  1. Thaddeus Young - 54.4%
  2. Tayshaun Prince - 47.1%
  3. Andrei Kirilenko - 46.7%
  4. Wilson Chandler - 45.9%
  5. Caron Butler - 45.0%
  6. Shane Battier - 44.7%
  7. Jeff Green - 44.0%

12. 3-Point Field Goal Percentage

  1. Caron Butler - 43.1%
  2. TIE Tayshaun Prince & Shane Battier - 38.2%
  3. (4) Andrei Kirilenko - 37.0%
  4. (5) Wilson Chandler - 36.2%
  5. (6) Jeff Green - 30.5%
  6. (7) Thaddeus Young - 26.3%

13. Effective Field Goal Percentage - 

Effective Field Goal Percentage; the formula is (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA. This statistic adjusts for the fact that a 3-point field goal is worth one more point than a 2-point field goal. For example, suppose Player A goes 4 for 10 with 2 threes, while Player B goes 5 for 10 with 0 threes. Each player would have 10 points from field goals, and thus would have the same effective field goal percentage (50%).

  1. Shane Battier - 55.0%
  2. Thaddeus Young - 54.6%
  3. Wilson Chandler - 52.0%
  4. Andrei Kirilenko - 50.0%
  5. Jeff Green - 49.2%
  6. Tayshaun Prince - 48.8%
  7. Caron Butler - 48.7%

14. True Shooting Percentage - 
True Shooting Percentage; the formula is PTS / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA)). True shooting percentage is a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws.

  1. TIE Thaddeus Young & Andrei Kirilenko - 56.9%
  2. (3) Shane Battier - 56.7%
  3. (4) Wilson Chandler - 54.7%
  4. (5) Jeff Green - 54.1%
  5. (6) Caron Butler - 52.3%
  6. (7) Tayshaun Prince - 50.8%

15. Usage Percentage -

Usage percentage is an estimate of the percentage of plays that a player used while he was on the floor, where a play is defined to be a combination of field goal attempts, free throw attempts and turnovers. If a team distributed its plays equally among all of its players, then each individual would have a usage percentage of 20 percent.

  1. Shane Battier - 12.0%
  2. Andrei Kirilenko - 17.7%
  3. Jeff Green - 19.8%
  4. Wilson Chandler - 21.2%
  5. Thaddeus Young - 21.3%
  6. Tayshaun Prince - 21.4%
  7. Caron Butler - 25.3%

16. Blocks Per 36 Minutes

  1. Shane Battier - 1.4 
  2. TIE Andrei Kirilenko & Wilson Chandler - 1.3
  3. (4) Tayshaun Prince - 0.6
  4. (5) Jeff Green - 0.5
  5. (6) Thaddeus Young - 0.4
  6. (7) Caron Butler - 0.3

17. Steals Per 36 Minutes

  1. Thaddeus Young - 1.5
  2. Andrei Kirilenko - 1.4
  3. Caron Butler - 1.2
  4. Shane Battier - 0.9
  5. Jeff Green - 0.8
  6. Wilson Chandler - 0.7
  7. Tayshaun Prince - 0.4

18. Assist Percentage - Assist Percentage; the formula is 100 * AST / (((MP / (Tm MP / 5)) * Tm FG) - FG). Assist percentage is an estimate of the percentage of teammate field goals a player assisted while he was on on the floor.

  1. Andrei Kirilenko - 14.8%
  2. Tayshaun Prince - 14.5%
  3. Shane Battier - 11.5%
  4. Caron Butler - 9.1%
  5. Wilson Chandler - 7.9%
  6. Jeff Green - 7.2%
  7. Thaddeus Young - 7.0%

THIS IS THE END OF THE POST FOR THOSE WHO DO NOT WANT  TO LOOK AT ALL OF THE STATISTICS:
So, if a point value is assigned to each position in each statistic (I.E. 7 Points for a 1 Ranking, 6 Points for a 2 Ranking, 5 for 3, etc.) this is the list of the leaders:

"A" Rankings - This Ranking Uses Basic Points and Rebounds

 

  1. Andrei Kirilenko - 80 Points
  2. Thaddeus Young - 78 Points
  3. Wilson Chandler - 67 Points
  4. Shane Battier - 63 Point
  5. Jeff Green - 49 Points
  6. TIE Tayshaun Prince & Caron Butler - 45 Points

 

"B" Rankings - This Ranking Uses Points and Rebounds Per 36 Minutes

  1. Thaddeus Young - 82 Points
  2. Andrei Kirilenko - 79 Points
  3. Wilson Chandler - 65 Points
  4. Shane Battier - 64 Points
  5. Caron Butler - 47 Points
  6. Jeff Green - 46 Points
  7. Tayshaun Prince - 45 Points

Conclusions:

  • I had come into this post thinking that Wilson Chandler would be the best option for the Nets, but I now believe that Thaddeus Young is far and away the best option for the Nets with his only deficiency coming in 3 point shooting.
  • Either Wilson Chandler or AK-47 would be viable options at the 3 spot. However, I would still err towards the side of Chandler since they are similar statistically and Chandler is the younger and more athletic of the two. 
  • I do think Battier is a good player, but I do not think he is a good fit for the Nets at this time. He is great for a team that is already championship ready, but the Nets need more from the SF.
  • Jeff Green really is overrated by a lot.
  • Let Cuban overpay for Butler.
  • I do not want Tayshaun Prince anywhere near the Nets especially with the Pistons mutiny.

I would be happy with any of Thaddeus Young, Wilson Chandler or AK-47 at SF in that order. If King could pull off some magic and get a SG/SF tandem of Chandler and Young I would be ecstatic.
That would make my ideal lineup for next year:

Deron Williams

Wilson Chandler

Thaddeus Young

Kris Humphries

Brook Lopez


I know that the cap would most likely prevent it, but fans are supposed to speculate. That lineup can play some defense and is full of young players that still have upside.


Based on my post, who do you guys like at the SF position?

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