The biggest threats to steal Deron Williams away in 2012 are the Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets. You can be sure the Knicks have their eyes dead set on CP3 regardless of the CBA situation. One way or the other, they'll find a way to do it. It doesn't hurt to have David Stern, an avid Knicks fan, and the NBA currently owning the Hornets either.
So why are the Mavs and Rockets the biggest threats? Williams grew up in Texas and has mentioned that his main desire is to be on a team that is committed to winning. While acquiring him may be a step in the right direction for us, we have a tough road ahead of us in being able to acquire another star to play alongside of him. The 2011 free agent class is rather thin. The biggest star in 2012 will be Dwight Howard. Dallas has a perrenial playoff team, although they are aging. You can never rule out Mark Cuban's ability to make a big splash though. The Rockets have a good young piece in Kevin Martin and a capable big in Luis Scola, a need for a good young PG, and a determined revolutionary GM in Darryl Morey.
If we want to retain Williams, we need to make some smart moves and not overpay this offseason ... assuming a new CBA can be agreed upon. That means being careful with Kris Humphries and Sasha Vujacic, both of whom are unrestricted free agents, finding takers for Travis Outlaw, and not overusing the potential cap space we are expected to have for 2012. For Outlaw, my feeling is that the only possible deals we can work out are for "fallen angels" with big contracts (a la Richard Hamilton or Brandon Roy). We're not going to have a chance of pulling off something like what the Clippers did with Baron Davis to Cleveland due to limited assets.
Lastly, a lockout would actually benefit the Nets because it'll buy them time to get the new arena built and use it as a recruiting tool along with Williams. As much as I hate to agree with the media, Newark has done nothing to help the Nets appeal. Its really Brooklyn or bust.