*Partially inspired by this post at The Dream Shake.
With the NBA All-Star Game around the corner, I was wondering how Kris Humphries's play this season compared to forwards in the East that weren't voted in by the fans and if it was worthy enough of All-Star consideration.
Now before I begin, I'd like to make a point about using a team's W-L record in determining what players should make the All-Star Game. I think it's a silly exercise and doesn't give you much insight into how the player has performed. With that out the way, here we go.
Now when we think of an All-Star, we think of someone who performs very well at their position. First, we have to see what the average performance at the forward position is and how Kris compares to that:|
Statistic |
League Average Forward |
Kris Humphries |
|
Effective Field Goal Percentage |
51.1% |
54.9% |
|
True Shooting Percentage |
54.2% |
57.0% |
|
Free Throw Percentage |
75.0 |
70.3 |
|
Free Throw Attempts |
2.0 |
2.2 |
|
Field Goal Attempts |
7.0 |
6.9 |
|
Usage Rate |
18.35 |
16.35 |
|
Points per Game |
8.4 |
8.9 |
|
Assists per Game |
1.2 |
1.0 |
|
Turnovers |
1.0 |
1.1 |
So offensively, we see that Kris doesn't take many shots or handle the ball very often, but when he does shoot, he shoots at an above average rate while limiting his turnovers. But as we know, Hump isn't known for his scoring expertise. He's more known as a rebounding machine as Table 2 illustrates in all its boringy glory:
|
Statistic |
League Average Forward |
Kris Humphries |
|
Rebounds per game |
4.2 |
9.4 |
|
Total rebound rate |
11.5 |
21.8 |
|
Blocks |
0.5 |
1 |
|
Steals |
0.6 |
0.4 |
|
Personal fouls |
1.9 |
2.2 |
Hump has been one of the best rebounders in the league. He ranks #10 overall in rebounds per game and is 4th in rebound rate of forwards who play at least 25 minutes per game.
We see that Humphries grades out well using traditional measures, so let's see how it looks using newer, advanced statistical measures. The two measures I'll be using are John Hollinger's Player Efficiency Rating(defintion and guide to calculating here) and Dr. David Berri's Wins Produced(FAQ and guide to calculating here)
|
Statistic |
League Average forward |
Kris Humphries |
|
PER |
12.97 |
18.56 |
|
Wins Produced per 48 minutes |
0.094 |
0.357 |
Once again, we see the Hump's performance grades out really well. And as it turns out, he's been one of the most productive players in the league.
So by all measures, Kris Humphries's play has been really good. The next step in determining whether or not he's an All-Star is to compare his play to that of his peers. Since LeBron James and Amar'e Stoudamire were selected by the fans, I won't be including them in this exercise. The players I will be using are:
Paul Pierce of the Boston Celtics
Joe Johnson of the Atlanta Hawks
Danny Granger of the Indiana Pacers
Gerald Wallace of the Charlotte Bobcats
Andre Iguodala of the Philadelphia 76ers
Josh Smith of the Hawks
Carlos Boozer of the Chicago Bulls
Elton Brand of the 76ers
Chris Bosh of the Miami Heat
Kevin Garnett of the Celtics
|
Statistic |
Kris Humphries |
Chris Bosh |
Kevin Garnett |
|
Effective Field Goal % |
54.9% |
50.4 |
53.4% |
|
True Shooting Percentage |
57.0% |
57.8 |
57.8% |
|
Usage Rate |
16.35 |
23.94 |
22.35 |
|
Points per game |
8.9 |
18.6 |
15.1 |
|
Assists per Game |
1.0 |
1.7 |
2.1 |
|
Rebounds per game |
9.4 |
8.2 |
8.9 |
|
Rebound rate |
21.8 |
13.5 |
18.0 |
|
Minutes per game |
25.7 |
35.6 |
31.1 |
|
PER |
18.56 |
19.99 |
21.62 |
|
Wins Produced per 48 minutes(WP48) |
0.357 |
0.161 |
0.332 |
|
Wins Produced |
8.8 |
5.0 |
7.5 |
|
Statistic |
Paul Pierce |
Joe Johnson |
Andre Iguodala |
Gerald Wallace |
|
Effective Field Goal % |
57.2% |
47.8% |
49.3% |
45.4 |
|
True Shooting Percentage |
63.1% |
52.2% |
53.3% |
52.5 |
|
Usage Rate |
23.52 |
26.85 |
18.60 |
20.66 |
|
Points per game |
19.1 |
19.6 |
14.1 |
15.9 |
|
Assists per Game |
3.3 |
5.4 |
5.5 |
2.2 |
|
Rebounds per game |
5.2 |
4.1 |
5.9 |
7.9 |
|
Rebound rate |
9.4 |
6.7 |
9.0 |
12.0 |
|
Minutes per game |
34.4 |
36.1 |
37.3 |
39.4 |
|
PER |
20.89 |
18.06 |
17.13 |
14.23 |
|
Wins Produced per 48 minutes(WP48) |
0.259 |
0.115 |
0.246 |
0.091 |
|
Wins Produced |
8.1 |
3.2 |
6.3 |
2.6 |
|
Statistic |
Danny Granger |
Josh Smith |
Elton Brand |
Carlos Boozer |
|
Effective FG% |
48.7% |
48.7% |
51.5% |
55.0% |
|
True shooting% |
54.4% |
52.7% |
55.8% |
58.3% |
|
Usage rate |
27.15 |
24.09 |
19.72 |
28.04 |
|
Points per game |
21.3 |
15.9 |
14.9 |
19.9 |
|
Assists per game |
2.8 |
3.4 |
1.5 |
2.2 |
|
Rebounds per game |
5.6 |
8.8 |
8.6 |
10.0 |
|
Rebound rate |
8.3 |
15.0 |
14.3 |
18.0 |
|
Minutes per game |
36.8 |
34.9 |
34.7 |
32.0 |
|
PER |
17.28 |
18.30 |
18.69 |
22.26 |
|
Wins Produced per 48 |
0.037 |
0.202 |
0.152 |
0.261 |
|
Wins Produced |
1.2 |
6.8 |
4.8 |
4.7 |
A couple of thoughts about some of the players listed:
- Kris Humphries has been really good this season.
- Even at his "advanced" age, Kevin Garnett has still been one of the best big men in the league.
- Even with the sexy points per game, Danny Granger hasn't performed all that well and the Nets should avoid him if the Pacers put him on the trading block.
- And that Joe Johnson contract is still ROFL-worthy.
In conclusion, we see that Kris Humphries has been the best thing about New Jersey Nets basketball this season and that his play compares favorably to some of the big names in the Eastern Conference. Will his performance be enough to earn a spot on the All-Star team? Who knows. But if he was chosen, it would be well-deserved.
*Statistics cited are from Hoopdata and Nerd Numbers.


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