FanPost

A little 2010-11 simulation fun

I thought I'd have a little fun and try and simulate the Nets 2010-2011 season using the simulation tools on www.whatifsports.com, before I go any further, I am well aware of many of the flaws inherent in this simulation, but it's just for fun.  First of all, whatifsports.com does not yet have the 09-10 player seasons available, so I have had to use the 08-09 seasons for some players, or in the case where I believe that a players 09-10 performance is more indicative of the players expected performance next year than 08-09, I have tried to find a past player with comparable performance to that players 09-10 season.  Here are the players I have used:

Devin Harris 08-09

Rex Chapman 94-95 (To represent Jordan Farmar 09-10)

Anthony Morrow 08-09

Thabo Sefolosha 07-08 (To represent Terrence Williams 09-10, probably the worst fit, more on this later)

Quinton Ross 08-09

Travis Outlaw 08-09

Troy Murphy 08-09

Big Z 05-06 (To represent Brook 09-10)

Johan Petro 08-09

 

and for the rookies:

rookie Kevin Garnett 94-95 (to represent Derrick Favors)

Dorell Wright 07-08 (to represent Damion James)

Ervin Johnson 93-94 (to represent Zoubek, chose him for 12th man instead of Hump, purely speculative call)

 

Now, I'm about to go through some of the numbers that I used to choose that players to represent the 09-10 seasons of Farmar, T. Will, and Brook, if you don't care, feel free to skip to the end.

 

For the comparison of Chapman and Farmar, I have listed their stats, and came up with a weighted STDEV of their counting stats per 36min of 14.08%, not a terrible fit.  Famar was actually quite hard to find a comparison for, probably because he does not have very typical stats for a PG because of the triangle offence.  In fact Chapman is a SG who played a bit of PG.

Chapfarm_medium

A comparison of Big Z in 05-06 to Brook 09-10 came up with a weighted STDEV of 12.92%

Bigzbrook_medium

And a comparison of T. Will with Sefolosha 07-08 came in with 28.75%, quite high, but I couldn't find a better fit.  Last year Terrence was quite a mixture of efficiency and inefficiency in different ways.

Thabtwill2_medium

And finally, I just wanted to show the stats for the 3 guys I chose to represent the rookies:

Rooks2_medium

So...  sorry about all the numbers.  I used this team to simulate against the 08-09 versions of the teams on the schedule.  Anyway finally, the results.

Wins - 39

Losses - 43

PPG - 99.33

OPPG - 100.24

Margin:  -0.91

 

A shot at the 8th seed?

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