I thought I'd have a little fun and try and simulate the Nets 2010-2011 season using the simulation tools on www.whatifsports.com, before I go any further, I am well aware of many of the flaws inherent in this simulation, but it's just for fun. First of all, whatifsports.com does not yet have the 09-10 player seasons available, so I have had to use the 08-09 seasons for some players, or in the case where I believe that a players 09-10 performance is more indicative of the players expected performance next year than 08-09, I have tried to find a past player with comparable performance to that players 09-10 season. Here are the players I have used:
Devin Harris 08-09
Rex Chapman 94-95 (To represent Jordan Farmar 09-10)
Anthony Morrow 08-09
Quinton Ross 08-09
Travis Outlaw 08-09
Troy Murphy 08-09
Big Z 05-06 (To represent Brook 09-10)
Johan Petro 08-09
and for the rookies:
Ervin Johnson 93-94 (to represent Zoubek, chose him for 12th man instead of Hump, purely speculative call)
Now, I'm about to go through some of the numbers that I used to choose that players to represent the 09-10 seasons of Farmar, T. Will, and Brook, if you don't care, feel free to skip to the end.
For the comparison of Chapman and Farmar, I have listed their stats, and came up with a weighted STDEV of their counting stats per 36min of 14.08%, not a terrible fit. Famar was actually quite hard to find a comparison for, probably because he does not have very typical stats for a PG because of the triangle offence. In fact Chapman is a SG who played a bit of PG.
A comparison of Big Z in 05-06 to Brook 09-10 came up with a weighted STDEV of 12.92%
And a comparison of T. Will with Sefolosha 07-08 came in with 28.75%, quite high, but I couldn't find a better fit. Last year Terrence was quite a mixture of efficiency and inefficiency in different ways.
And finally, I just wanted to show the stats for the 3 guys I chose to represent the rookies:
So... sorry about all the numbers. I used this team to simulate against the 08-09 versions of the teams on the schedule. Anyway finally, the results.
Wins - 39
Losses - 43
PPG - 99.33
OPPG - 100.24
A shot at the 8th seed?