FanPost

A Closer Look at Carmelo

Let me start off by saying that I'm all for trying to acquire Carmelo, I just want to put it all in a bit of perspective.  

 

I would like to thank 82games.com and Basketballvalue.com for all the statistics seen here.

 

First, I want to take a bit of a look at Carmelo's shot selection last year:

Jump shots: (63% of attempts), (41% - eFG%... ouch), (39% - assisted)

Close shots: (31% of attempts), (56% - eFG%), (40% - assisted)

Dunks: (4% of attempts), (93.3% - eFG%), (68% - assisted)

Tips: (1% of attempts), (42.9% - eFG%)

To be fair, players that create their own shots will have a lower eFG% on their jumpshots, but to give you a point of reference, 77% of Kobe's attempts were jumpshots and 39% of them were assisted as well, but he had a 46.2% eFG%.

 

Carmelo draws fouls on 14.5% of his attempts.  This is a pretty good rate, for comparison, LeBron draws fouls on 17.7%

 

One part of Carmelo's game that I think is a bit underrated is his passing.  While he only averaged 4 assists per 48 last year, his assist/Passing TO ratio was 3.7.  Once again as a point of reference LeBron's ratio was 4.4.

 

Offensive Rebounding is another strong suit for Carmelo, he grabbed 5.9% of available offensive rebounds last year.  This is quite good for a SF, (LeBron 2.7%)

 

When it comes to production by position, it is quite evident that Carmelo was more effective as a SF than as a PF, and for those of you that say that Carmelo doesn't play PF, he actually played 10% of the Nuggets minutes at PF last year.

SF - (Min 56%), (Pts per 100 Possesions - 107.3), (opp Pts per 100 - 101.4), (PER - 25.4), (oppPER - 15.3)

PF - (Min 10%), (Pts per 100 Possesions - 107.4), (opp Pts per 100 - 105.4), (PER - 22.5), (oppPER - 21.7)

When Carmelo is playing PF he isn't much more effective than his counterpart on the other team, but he is much more effective than his opponent when playing SF.

 

Clutch Time statistics (4th Quarter, less than 5min left, neither team ahead by more than 5 pts)

(Pts per 100 Possesions - 110.2), (opp Pts per 100 - 104.3), (eFG% - 43.3%... not great), (Assited - 20%)

 

Clutch Time Shot Selection

Jump shots: (70% of attempts), (37.7% - eFG%... ouch), (33% - assisted)

Close shots: (29% of attempts), (54.2% - eFG%), (0% - assisted)!!!

Dunks: (1% of attempts), (100% - eFG%), (0% - assisted)

I find his 0% assisted on close shots in crunch time alarming.  I know that you have to create a bit more for yourself during crunch time, but 0% seems to me as he is forcing the issue.  Once again to compare to LeBron on his close shots during crunch time he was assisted 24% of the time with an eFG% of 62.5%

 

Finally, here's just a last comparison of Carmelo and LeBron's 2yr adjusted +/-.  I won't go into the specifics of the statistic, but just refer you to www.basketballvalue.com

LeBron:  (2yr adj +/-   15.76), (Standard Error 2.92), (Rank 2)

Carmelo:  (2yr adj +/-   4.22), (Standard Error 2.74), (Rank 13) 

 

I'll finish again like I started, I absolutely think that we should go after Carmelo, you don't get the opportunity to go after a player of his talent very often.  The only real issues I saw when pouring over the numbers, is that an improvement in Carmelo's shot selection might make him much more effective. 

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