When Demand Exceeds Supply ...Learning from Detroit
by Net Income on Jun 4, 2010 12:53 PM EDT
in 2010 Free Agency
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PrintLast July, the Pistons had the most cap room of any team and three picks in the top 39. They wound up overpaying for Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva --to the tune of $95.7 million, plus incentives, over five years. Their lowest pick, Jonas Jerebko, had a better year than their top two. They won 27 games. Is there a lesson there for a team we know and love? Oh yeah.
In fact, Art Garcia writes, Mikhail Prokhorov may be the owner most prone to overpaying this summer: "Assume the Nets don't hit on the crème of the free-agent crop. Where is Mikhail Prokhorov going to turn? The Russian billionaire with the championship plan is going to go all out to fill his shopping cart with the next best." Maybe. Prokhorov, like Rod Thorn, has said free agency is a two-year opportunity. Still...
"He'd be a hard guy to talk into doing nothing because he wants to make a big splash, but making that big splash isn't everything," said former Timberwolves GM Kevin McHale. "Some people get really concerned with winning the press conference, but you've got to win games."
- Cash-rich teams can't afford to come up short in free agency - Art Garcia - NBA.com
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They don't realize that Proky can surprise and get RGay without play anywhere near max, but offering 30+ million to be paid on the spot.
Proky can also steal DLee and nothing Knicks can do about it. Lee would be unrestricted after July.
Nets aren’t desperate. They can get Cousins or Aminu (if can’t trade for Turner) and either RGay or DLee and still have $16 milloin in reserve.
That would make Nets a clear playoff team to then go after LeBron, or they can wait another year.
Its a no lose for Nets.
Its a lose or lose badly for Knicks and Miami.
Proky already said
that he wants guys who will help the direction of the team over making ‘splashy’ moves
"splash" is their word, not his
I think he knows what he’s doing.
by Net Income on Jun 4, 2010 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Rod is smart enough to advise him on who to pay X and who should get Y. Proky is no fool, these reports are so meritless. They see some dude with deep pockets and assumes he’ll just spend to spend. On the contrary, most truly wealthy people I know do the complete opposite. That is the reason they are incredibly successful…
self made billionaires...
…are more than likely not to spend their money unwisely.
"No one stands on the top of the world. Not you, not me, not even gods. But the unbearable vacancy of the throne in the sky is over. From now on...I will be sitting on it."
by MrDollarBills on Jun 4, 2010 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions
so what you're saying is
guys who inherit their money from their daddies (see Dolan and Jeff Wilpon) are more likely to run franchises into the ground? non-self made billionaires may make poorer decisions?
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
yes. Yes I am.
"No one stands on the top of the world. Not you, not me, not even gods. But the unbearable vacancy of the throne in the sky is over. From now on...I will be sitting on it."
by MrDollarBills on Jun 5, 2010 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree
the fact he specifically said 3-5 year plan to me makes it seem like he understands that patience is needed. I imagine if they can get Amare for the max they’d be willing to, but they’re not going to overpay for Lee/Gay/JJ etc.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
Making a "splash" could mean to Proky, not taking a "project" in Favors, who wouldn't be a starter for 1 1/2 years.
Nets should have 2 nice pieces in place and a great coach BEFORE making a bid for LeBron. Worst case scenario is they keep the cap space for 2011, but they would already have met Proky’s goals for making the playoffs.
I don’t agree with McHale about succumbing to LeBron’s wishes to hire someone. Avery will be coach without waiting for LeBron. Maybe Nets would find an Asst. Coach to meet LeBron’s needs.
There's a HUGE difference with the situations of the Pistons and the Nets
When the Pistons went out and got Ben Gordon and Charlie-V, it was with the hope of maintaining some kind of footing in the upper echelon of the East (with a nucleus of Hamilton, Prince, Stuckey, Gordon and Villanueva). Obviously those moves failed, and failed spectacularly.
The Nets, on the other hand, have obviously already bottomed out. Rockin’ Rod, unlike Joe Dumars, isn’t in the position of trying to keep a declining team competitive.
'The Crossover' - a Nets and Knicks podcast. http://phobos.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewPodcast?id=268817312
Forget the 92 million....
…Dumars set the Pistons back for a decade by drafting Darko over Anthony.
You have to question the acumen of the morons that gassed Dumars up to make one of the biggest draft blunders in modern NBA history.
"No one stands on the top of the world. Not you, not me, not even gods. But the unbearable vacancy of the throne in the sky is over. From now on...I will be sitting on it."
that was Larry Brown's doing
he wanted him
shocking...
….to find out that listening to Larry Brown’s love em and leave em ass is basically a franchise killing move.
“Pass on Carmelo, get me Darko. BTW, I’ll be quitting, or inteviewing for another job next week”
“Pass on Lopez, give me DJ Augustine. BTW, I’ll be quitting after the season ends, and I’ve already interviewed for a front office job as well”
WTF
"No one stands on the top of the world. Not you, not me, not even gods. But the unbearable vacancy of the throne in the sky is over. From now on...I will be sitting on it."
by MrDollarBills on Jun 4, 2010 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
this is exactly why i hope the rumors of Larry Brown being interested in the nets job
are completely unfounded. He’s a great coach but I don’t want him anywhere near the nets.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
If the Pistons drafted Carmelo
would they have won the finals that year? I’m not so sure they would have (chemistry, having to implement/develop Carmelo, Carmelo’s D).
I would actually be quite happy if we focused on the draft and have a very strong draft – getting 3 players who can contribute (1 as a starter, the other 2 as solid rotation players) and spend next year focusing again on development of the youth. This is giong to be a very young team regardless of what happens in free agency. We will have 2 potential first round picks next year along with very deep pockets and cap room. Target a player like Carmelo then – when we are 1 year away from Brooklyn and legitimately have a chance to compete for the Eastern Conference crown.
Spending money on a player like Scola, Joe Johnson, etc is a major mistake. Just because we have cap space doesn’t mean we need to spend it. We are not the Knicks – who have no real young nucleus to speak of (sorry not about to believe that Gallinari is the next All Star 3 in the East) and no draft picks – the Knicks are primed to make Isiah type mistakes this summer. Book it.
and when Carmelo doesn't come here....
….what then?
This stuff about planning for players still under contract with other teams, who may very well give them max extensions, is insane. I equate this kind of thought process to a team tanking on purpose to get one player in the draft specifically. We heard all season long, “Lebron and Wall”. Guess what? We’ll end up with neither.
I agree with you that we need to draft strong(1 starter caliber, 2 roleplayers), but saying that we shouldn’t spend is not the way to go. People assume that our cap space will last forever, no one thinks about what has to happen when we have to give Brook Lopez a MAX extension in another season or so. How do you expect to fill out a roster, with all 1 year deals for d leaguers or desperate vet’s trying to fight off bankruptcy?
"No one stands on the top of the world. Not you, not me, not even gods. But the unbearable vacancy of the throne in the sky is over. From now on...I will be sitting on it."
by MrDollarBills on Jun 4, 2010 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Next summer,
hoping there won’t be a lockout, the Nets will be one year from Brooklyn, the birthplace of one Carmelo Anthony. That will help. Prokhorov will also have a track record and whoever the Nets draft will have a year and a record to scrutinize.
Should be easier next year to attract a good player.
I wonder how old he was when he moved to B-More
Brooklyn born and Brooklyn bred are different.
Most likely he could give a…what happens to the Nets he should be a Nugget for his entire career.
he was 8 when they moved
I’d imagine he’s not all that attached to it.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
i can't believe anyone with the name lala holds any weight with anything
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
Don't be fooled...
LaLa, or “Alani”, as she was known to those of us who were familiar with her back in the day, was raised in Piscataway, NJ. She went to Piscataway High School, and even played JV Girl’s basketball. That girl is no more of a New Yorker than Carmelo, who was raised in Baltimore, Maryland, is. The whole Carmelo-Brooklyn connection is a bunch of bunk.
"No one stands on the top of the world. Not you, not me, not even gods. But the unbearable vacancy of the throne in the sky is over. From now on...I will be sitting on it."
by MrDollarBills on Jun 5, 2010 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Well thank God
I was concerned her parents actually named her lala.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
I used Carmelo as an example. But my point is that this team is not going to win a championship or make a deep run in the playoffs next year. Therefore it makes no sense to give a hefty contract to someone next season – and the best course of action is to continue to develop the young players within.
Oh, I agree
…with not signing someone to a max deal not named Lebron of Dwayne.
If we can land a piece in FA that makes sense, I’m all for it. I don’t think we should sit on our hands.
"No one stands on the top of the world. Not you, not me, not even gods. But the unbearable vacancy of the throne in the sky is over. From now on...I will be sitting on it."
by MrDollarBills on Jun 4, 2010 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Carmelo?
Carmelo is overrated. He is a good scorer, but is mediocre at every other aspect of the game.
But if you surround him with a solid team you can win, were gong to have more than the Nuggets
Especially now that our young players are starting to grow.
I think he's one of the few players thats both overrated and underrated
he’s gotten so overrated by the media that the backlash has started to cause him to become underrated.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
Thorn and Proky have said it ... they won't OVERPAY
If the the unfotunate thing happens, like Nets not signing a top tier FA, I won’t be disappointed at all.
I’ll be disappointed if they signed a tier 2 FA to max deals, just so they can sign someone to save the season. It’ll be suicide if ever. All’s lost for nothing.
If they can’t sign one top FA, I’m ok with developing what we have now, and go for next summer’s FA’s, assuming there’s no lockout.
But what do they consider an overpay
overpay can mean drastically different things. Does that mean they won’t pay more than the price the market is setting? because just because a market sets a price for a player doesn’t mean that it isn’t an overpay, it could be a market inefficiency. That’s a big difference between gms in baseball. Guys like Omar Minaya usually won’t pay more than what the market is setting (although he does sometime even mess that up) where as a guy like Theo Epstein won’t even pay what the market is setting if he thinks it’s too much and instead will look for undervalued players.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
Also a changing market can turn reasonable costs
into drastic overpays and with the CBA uncertainty contracts that seem reasonable this year could be albatrosses a year from now.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
The don't have money for two Max FAs. Only Knicks do, but they would be surrounded with minimum salary players.
Knicks and Miami are the teams that would be overpaying. And if DWade decides to leave, Miami may wish they had the roster that Nets did last year, that produced 12 wins.
Overpaying
Overpaying is only a problem (a) if they can otherwise use the cap space this year or (b) if it involves a long-term deal that hamstrings them long in the future. If they cannot attract a top tier free agent this year, then the key is not to give out 5-year deals, like Detroit did. Give out one-year deals, at above-market prices, and see what happens in summer 2011. I am betting that there will be some free agents who would take an (overpaying) 1 year deal simply to try to get a better long term deal next year.
Let’s say, for example, that they can’t attract any of the Max players this year. Why not offer one year, above market deals to guys like, say, Marcus Camby, or Mike Miller, or Josh Childress, or Tyrus Thomas, or Luis Scola. Some of these guys might want to take a 1 year deal at above market wages and try again next year. For the restricted free agents, their teams might not want to match a 1 year deal above market.
To me, it is a better idea than giving a long term (5 year) Max or near-Max deal to a guy who doesn’t deserve it.
Because those guys are likely to get better long term deals
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
I mean I agree in theory with what you're saying
it just doesn’t seem practical to think we can pay more on a one year deal than teams will offer over 3-4 year deals, since we can’t exceed the max.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
It depends
They (or their agent) may think they could get a better deal next year. Especially with the Restricted Free Agents – there usually isn’t a gigantic market for those guys (which is why Childress had to go to Greece).
Think about it this way. Say the Nets pick Favors – there is going to be a position for a productive PF for a year or two while Favors grows into the position. If the Nets can’t attract a legit Max free agent (ie, LBJ, Wade, Bosh, but not Joe Johnson, not Rudy Gay), why not offer Scola the Max salary for one season? You don’t kill your long term cap, and can try again next year. Scola might take it, because he might figure he’ll get a better deal next year (when he is unrestricted) than he could this year.
I could understand that
except the CBA uncertainty makes that an almost zero chance of happening, which is why guys like D-wade and Lebron and Amare are opting out now rather than taking their 1 year max money and opting out next year. Players are expecting the CBA to lower prices, or a lock out to occur, so they’re trying to get long-term deals now.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
CBA
I am not as pessimistic about the CBA uncertainty as you. At the very least, it is an avenue to explore over the next few months. Doesn’t hurt to ask.
I think that everyone is agreed that it is stupid to overpay for players on long-term deals. The only question is, if you can’t get the guys you like on reasonable deals, what other options do you have?
I disagree with signing a guy like Scola for 1 max season. What does he realistically add to the team wins? 5? To make us have a chance at an 8 seed? Better to just focus on development of TWill, Devin, Lee, CDR, Favors, Lopez and the other 2 picks. Give these guys big minutes every night. Makes the most sense. Why take away minutes from a top draft pick obviously viewed as an important piece of the future in a developmental year?
Obviously if we get a true max FA – that plan changes drastically as we are expected to be a top playoff team next year.
Disagree
Development next year ought to be to make the playoffs. That’s what Prokhorov has said, and I agree with it. No substitute for playoff experience for guys like Brook, C-Lee and T-Will.
If we don’t get a Max free agent to get there, we ought not simply view 2010-11 as another throw away year – we ought to spend the money on guys necessary to make the playoffs, while not hurting the cap space for 2011 and beyond.
Here is what I would do next season:
Point Guard – Terrence Williams
Shooting Guard – Courtney Lee
Small Forward – Evan Turner
Power Forward – Josh Boone
Center – Brook Lopez
by diehardNFFLbarnone on Jun 4, 2010 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Josh Boone at pf???????
why???? Boone’s only real value is as a back up center.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
Here is what I would do next season:
Point Guard – Terrence Williams
Shooting Guard – Devin Harris
Small Forward – Courtney Lee
Power Forward – Kris Humphries
Center – Brook Lopez.
by diehardNFFLbarnone on Jun 4, 2010 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t believe Prokhorov will overpay. His team has done it’s research. I think I recall him being quoted as saying he understands that a bad contract can cripple a team for 5 years. These guys saying otherwise are speaking out of their rear ends.
by ispartan on Jun 4, 2010 4:26 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Great quote...
It shows he is on top of the overpayment thing.
And don’t forget Thorn’s reluctance to give KMart the max even before The Rat was on the scene.
yeah but then
he turned around and overpayed RJ, and then VC on his second contract.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
Not really. It would be hard to argue that those are team crippling bad contracts. There are many examples of worse ones. The early years of those contracts were not bad at all.
by ispartan on Jun 4, 2010 6:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
there many examples of worse ones
but I don’t see how you can argue the VC contract wasn’t bad.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
Well, I was commenting about contracts that are so bad that they cripple a team, like the two mentioned in article, Arenas is an obvios one, I could go on, VC is nowhere near that category, during his time with the Nets only Kobe and Wade were more productive shooting guards plus he is a fan favorite outside of a few haters on the boards, I don’t see how you can argue that it was a bad contract, who would you have signed with that money instead?
by ispartan on Jun 4, 2010 9:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I wouldn't have signed anyone
but giving a 30 something year old shooting guard with declining numbers and bad knees a max contract just isn’t that smart. Can you think of any 30 year olds, other than maybe Kobe, you’d sign for max? And VC wasn’t at all on Kobe’s level at the time.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
Huh? Try to stick to the facts. Of course, I wouldn’t sign VC for the max and he did not get the max. His knees while not the same as when he was 20 were still good enough to allow him to have one of the better vertical jumps in the league. His numbers after he signed the contract were outstanding, if you consider points plus rebounds plus assists. I can only guess you are baiting me with this nonsense and I apologize for posting so much about a former Net.
by ispartan on Jun 5, 2010 9:29 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
overpay and get your guy
We have untill next summer to get a star player through FA or lose our chance. Maybe we hit the luxury tax but it will be worth it for proky if the fit is good with a new perrenial all-star. Now that everone else is going to nickel and dime we might be able to snag amare while 2nd tier players wont win you anything..thats the mistake with Detroit.
If Nets go for Amare, they can't also go for LeBron without tossing Harris.
Bout time people realize this. Nets only have effectively almost 28 million in cap space (if 56.1 million is the Cap).
Only Knicks have more.
He might be the one to overspend, but then again
Golden State is about to be owned by a guy who makes him look poor. This league is gonna get interesting when its most active owners will be competing multi Billionaires.
by skeptic con sleepy freud on Jun 5, 2010 4:54 PM EDT reply actions
I have been saying this all season. We can’t overpay for slightly above average talent like Ben Gordon and Villanueva. Not that we could not afford it now, but, you must work within the salary cap. I knew when they gave those two near max dollars, they would regret it right away! How does Joe Dumars still have his job? He drafts Darco over Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade. He trades the best player he had from their championship runs in Chauncey Billups, and then gives those two WAY too much money. LOL. What a joke!
LETS GO NETS!
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