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Dumpy's Stairway to Success

For past three seasons, NetsDaily has used Dumpy as our stats guru and systems/process guy. He's taken looks at the team's statistical performance and analyzed how the draft might go based on historical trends and the preferences of team management. Now he's taking a "systems-oriented" look at the coming season by examining whether the right pieces are in place to be successful. We think he's a bit of an alchemist.

Predicted Record: 39-42, with one rainout.

Hello again, and welcome to another fun-filled season of New Jersey Nets basketball. As in past seasons, the Nets will be led this season by their "big three" of Jason Kidd, Richard Jeff---

Oops. Old habits die hard. Who would have thought that the Nets would eventually give up on the idea of trying to surround Kidd, Jefferson, and Vince Carter with a group of mediocre veterans without any tangible upside and hope for the best? If there was an upside to Jason Kidd’s petulant behavior last season, it was that he essentially forced management to turn the page and adopt a different tack. So, with that in mind, let me try again. In what has been termed a "rebuilding season," the New Jersey Nets will struggle to reach double digits in victories, and have set an ambitious goal of achieving the 29th best record in---

No, wait a second. That doesn’t seem correct, either. The club just has to be better than that, right? This preseason prediction racket is more difficult than it first appears. So who, exactly, are these New Jersey Nets? With only three players returning from last season’s exciting opening day match against the Bulls, what can be realistically expected from this squad? What, exactly, could be considered a "successful season" from this group? More importantly, why should we waste our winter rooting for a team that is so obviously doomed to a season of ineptitude and failure?

To help answer those questions and more, this piece is going to have to be a little different from the typical preseason fare. Because this squad consists nearly entirely of new players who have never played together before, it probably wouldn’t be very instructive to just go through the roster and guess where the strengths and weaknesses are.

The truth of the matter is that we just don’t know what this season will bring; there are too many variables and unknowns. We don’t even know what the opening day starting lineup and rotation will look like, let alone what it will look like four, eight, or twelve weeks from now! Moreover, the Nets sport three rookies and two sophomores that are expected to have significant roles during the upcoming season. That’s fully a third of the team! How can we even try to predict what their strengths and weaknesses will be—other than merely to list "youth" on both sides of the ledger? We just can’t do it. We can try to guess whether Brook Lopez, Ryan Anderson, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Yi Jianlian, and Sean Williams will be productive, but when all is said and done, it will just be a guess based solely on whether we have a tendency to be optimistic or pessimistic about the future. We might as well read used tea leaves or try or hand at numerology; we’d have just as much chance of being correct.

So instead, what I’d like to do is focus on whether the Nets appear to have a plan in place to achieve success; try to figure out what that plan is; and try to predict whether they have the pieces in place to achieve that success. To do this, I am going to start by exploring just what it seems to take for a team to be successful in today’s NBA. Then we can try to decide whether the way that the Nets have rebuilt this team has a chance to be successful, if not this season, then a year or two down the line. If the team doesn’t have a plan in place, then it does no good to simply acquire players with potential, even if they are super-athletic. They have to be nurtured, and be focused on achieving results through commonly-held goals. Now, by the term "successful" I’m not just referring to the teams that have ultimately become NBA champions, although obviously they would be included in the discussion. No, I’m referring to the characteristics that appear to be shared by most (if not all) of the top eight or ten teams each season. To be clear, these are those teams that are playoff-caliber teams, and they all probably believe that they have at least some chance to reach the Finals once the playoffs begin. As you would expect, these teams are built all sorts of different ways, and play all sorts of different styles, but, remarkably, they have more in common than you might think.

First and foremost, you need the right personnel. A look at most of the successful teams reveals a couple of interesting patterns regarding their starting lineups:

All of the elements listed above—the team identity, deep bench, and chemistry—will counter the personnel weaknesses, most notably the reliable inside scoring threat, and possibly being a below-average rebounding team. A lot of things have to go right for the team to be successful. For instance, they have to avoid injuries to Harris and Carter, and the youngsters have to develop and begin to contribute fairly quickly. Most importantly, though, is that they learn to actually PLAY defense, as opposed to WANTING to play defense. On that last point, it is true that the team has played erratically defensively during the last few preseason games. However, that was without the injured Najera, Hayes, Swift, and Boone (and one game without the defensively underrated Vince Carter), all of whom should play significant roles over the course of the season. I believe that the team will gradually improve defensively and this will eventually become one of their strengths, so long as they remain focused and committed to the principles taught by the coaching staff, and don’t reach a point where they give up in frustration. All in all, I like their chances more than the Oklahoma City's and Minnesota's and Charlotte's and Atlanta's and Knickses, etc.

So, can the Nets reach the playoffs? I believe that it is possible, but probably unlikely. I believe that the pieces are in place for the Nets to achieve between 35-45 victories, depending on how fast the youngsters develop, and on any injuries suffered by them (or by their primary competition for those last few playoff spots). My prediction is that the Nets will win 39 games, and narrowly miss the playoffs by just two or three games, but in the attempt will have established a foundation for 2009-2010.

Regardless what happens, though, this season is sure to be filled with unexpected developments, and we may even get to witness the development of a special player or two.

Enjoy the season!

[Credit for some of these ideas is due towards Kenny Smith, who discussed many of these elements in an article several months ago that discussed what playoff teams needed to have in order to contend for the NBA title. I've taken those ideas, and expanded on them to explore what makes a team "successful," which is slightly broader, and not nearly as demanding. For Smith's original article, go here: link]

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i have to commend you Dumpy for an excellent article. you basically structurely dissected the nets as a team and the elements required for the nets or any other rebuilding team to succesfully become a regularly contedning team.

from what i read, and i have to admit that ive agreed on almost every single point youve made, that the nets preety much have put themselves in position to succeed.

i do agree with you on the facts that the nets have the pg they need, have the superstar, have the shooters, and the glue players that they need.

i actually think the nets biggest strength will be their big men when this is all said and done. they are pretty much stacked with good young playuers with potential, and some of them with special potential. and they also have a couple of vets upfront that could stabalize the big men rotation since its soo young.

the nets are pretty much set at the center position for the next ten yrs. brook lopez in my opinion has wowed me in preseason. and evaluiationg a big man is not the same as evaluating a perimeter player. this kid has showed the whole package as far as big man ability. he is more athletic than he was sought to be. he uses his height and length to his maximum advantage, which makes him bigger and m ore athletic than he actually is. he can rebound, on the off. and def. boards. he can post uyou up, and has a variety of moves down there, and excellent footwork. he can shoot with the best of them. i mean for a center, only yao, okur, rasheed, and maybe a couple more guys or better shooter than lopez in that position. he has shown that he can be a defensive prescence and protect the rim by altering shots and blocking shots. i am sooo impressed with this kid. and the best thing about him is that he aint soft. he’s aggressive. after carter let him know in the secound preseason game in london, he’s been a different player. i mean the nets did get lucky at 10. thats why when i doubt you go big. he also needs to start somneoime soon. he is a legit center, anbd he’s an already better player than boone. the more time he gets, es[pecially starting, the more confident he will be and the better and faster he will become.

in my opinion Yi will be a star. when i evaluate this kid, i see skills and talent that are soo rare. he has all the tools to become great. the history of players in the NBA suggests that players with his skills, which were few, have always excelled and been great players. only maybbe two players come to mind when i think of yi’s skills, dirk and garnett. obviously yi is nowhere near the player these guys are now, but when these two players cam into the league, they showed similar skills to yi. garnett is by far the best out of the 3, cause he’s soo unique, along with his similar skills he possess to yi and dirk, he is a huge insde defensive and offensive prescnce, dirk has yet to show that, and probably not since his pretty much at the peak of his career, but yi is still young and can develop that part of the game if he works on it.. Yi is just a graceful player, it comes easy to him. and he’s so athletically gifted. i mean he has monstrous dunks, and runs the floor very well as if he were 6 feet. he shoots the ball from anywhere, iand its an unstoppable shot. once3 he gets his confidence up, and matures a lttle, and gets mroe experienced, and refines his skills, and gets a stronger upper body, which he will in time, he will make the rj trade like anohter rod thorn heist special.

i personally think that sean williams will in time show his talent. this koid has soo much talent, that if he develops it he could be one of those unique special players in the history of the league. last year in his rookie year, he showed flashes if absolute brilliance. he showed that he can be a force defensivly in the paint. he’s already probably the best pure sot blocker in the league. he has the athleticism to become a double digit rebounder. he also has enough of an offensive foundation to become a decent scorer in this league. iu really have to say that his offensive game is far su[perioir to boone’s, but the reasomn boone is ahead of him in his development, ius because of the Pt he got which gave him coonfidence in his abilities, and gave im the experience. he also knows the game a bit betetr, and understands poisitiong well, and is aan excellent rebounder. but i actually think thats ean’s potential far exceeds boone’s. this kid can be special, and showed it at times. i think that he needs alot of playing time, and the confidence and trust of his coaches. i see himn as an emotional guy who tries to please evrybody around him. i think that if the coach actually starts belieing him and spends time in his development and commits to him, this kid could be a monster. there just aint too many players with his talents. and he’s exaclty what the enst needed ever since they lost kmart, shjotblocking and inside prescence. now i think that the coach has not put sean nin a position to succeed. he cannot play the 5. its just regressing his development. also i would of liked to see sean play with lopez and the starting unit, or with yi and the starting unit. i think he plays better with the playmakers like harri sand vc. i mean its no coincindence that boone has been getting better numbers [pplaying alongside trhem, and that sean’s drop in production cam after the coach decided to seat him for no reason for a player the lost this year in kristic. all that PT would of done wonders for him. and he was amazing with the starting unit when he played. he was a spark plug. his jhnumbers were incredible, and he gave the nest a shot of jolt in their arms, and just was an energizer for them. i really feel that thr nets muist commit top this kid. this kid is a hard wporker and if he gets the right chance he will explode. i am sure that if the nest give up on him and trade him a la chandler for pj brown, they will regret it alrge the same way the bulls did. you just dont give up so fast on that type of talent. the nets wanted to draft hilton armsotrong so badly, and he went 10th for the ho0rnets. he was priojected as one of the nestt up and coming big men. look at him he’s in his 4th year, already hasnt reached his potential, and he’s being coached with probvably the best young player development coach there is. did the hornets go and trade him, no. cauyse they see potential. sean is high risk and high reward. he’s a project, he needs his time. i think the compettion this team has with all its big men, it will only further elevate their development.

i think this team is built up right. they are so ahead of the rebuilding curve fopr where their supposed to be in the rebuilding process. they have some real good peices in place. i have to say that the nest have more talent than the sixers or even bvlazers of last year, and much mroe talent than the beat up wizards of last year. its gonna come down to defense, and player developemnt, which will all come down to and fall on the coach.

your article pretty much touches on all the intangibles, and the formulas to become a good team. what you havent noted in your article, is that all the contending teams, and all the teams who hyave won in the past all have one thing in common, they all have great coaches with proven track records. they are all able to establish an i dentity a style of play in wich i wont matter if you have rookies or superstars or whatever, they are all gonna play into it. as you said, all the good trams have a style pof play that they stick to no matter whos on the floor starting unit or not. thast what the enst have been lacking for a couple of years now. i really thought since lawrence frank took over, he was really lucky to take over a team from byroin scott who reall built a strong foundation that took a team full of average and young players with one superstar to two cooncsecutive finals. the only way they did that is because they played hard, they knew the formula for winning, they defended, and they had an identity. so all frank had to do is pretty much just keep doing the same things scott did. although he couldnt provide the peadership qualities of scott, he had kidd to lean on for the best leadership you can get. as the years went by, the foundation scott built slowly started to cracked, and frank was unable to lay a new one with the veteran group he had. i eman he didnt have too much talent around the big three, nbu i think he also never really played them or gave theem a chance. he pretty much max 8 deep during the whole season. but he probably had one of the best starting 5’s tehre was. i mean he had two super superstar playesrs in vc and kidd, and a 20 point scoring olympian on the team. so im sure that counted for a few wins.

my point is, is that the only way this team fulfills oits potential is if frank can lead and coach them. im sure he can do it, but he has shown to be stubborn in his ways sometimes, and would only change certain alarming things after being forced fro players and above. i feel that he doesnt like to give the youngsters their due, even though they deserve it. i mean for a guy who probably had the easiest path to being a head coach in the nba copompared to all the head coaches and assistant head coaches in the whole league, he should be the first one to know what it means to give somone a real shot. but it seems thta he just doesnt trust them. i think part of it is that he feels insecure about his job. he feels that he needs the wins, and that he’s not confidnet in hsi teaching abilites to give the kids a chance to show they can win. and even this year i feel that he still will sacrifice some valuable player development for a fgew meaningless wins. i love it when kiki says that they want to win with a purpose, with their young players developing. so the main thing for frank is to stick to the company plan. firsts priority is establiching a style and building a foundation to build a team identity. they now have the right personel’s, as dumpy pointed out, so now frank can apply his own foundation from the start. he will have to teach the playes the fundementals from square one. i feel one of his biggest weaknesses is that he doesnt keep it simple. he complicates things too much, whether on offense and defense. he needs to keep it simple. he needs to relate to their abilities, and what theyre gfgoing through as players and as men, thats why you see most coaches have been ex players either in the nba, most of them, or college. it just gives the coach a better feel of the game, which can have him be able to certain abilities of the players, and gives him a sound hand on knowledge of the games fundementals. these are all obstacles that frank has to go through. but hopefully he has acumulated enough experience as a head coach to overcome all these deffiencies which have crippled him from doing his job effectively. as your analysis has been spot on on what the teams needs to be effective and competing, its on frank to make sure he keeps this team playin hard, developing them as a team and as players, and buyilding a foundation and identity. if he can do all thoise things, i can see the nest squeek in the playoffs.

by mina on Oct 29, 2008 5:55 AM EDT reply actions  

The pieces are truly there like you said, dumpy, but will our young guns get enough playing time in order to “get it”…maybe you should e-mail this to coach frank, see what happens

by Justin on Nov 2, 2008 12:03 PM EST reply actions  

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