Dumpy’s Statistical Analysis

Dumpy’s Statistical Analysis
November 6, 2007: New Jersey 87, Atlanta 82

Let’s get right to the stats.

Team Statistics

Possessions. The number of possessions (i.e., each time a team brings the ball up court) is a way to measure the pace of the game. For games involving running or trapping teams, the number of possessions will be high, possibly more than 100. For more methodical teams, the number of possessions may be closer to 80. Possessions can (generally) end one of three ways: on a field goal attempt that is not rebounded by the offense (this includes successful FG attempts); on a turnover, or through some free throws. Since this is an estimate based upon various statistics, and because the number of possessions should be approximately the same for both teams, we will just present the average estimated number of possessions for both teams.

Possessions 90

Offensive Rating. A team’s offensive rating is just the number of points scored per 100 possessions. The opponent's offensive rating can be considered the team's Defensive Rating. For the past few seasons, the average team offensive rating in
the NBA has hovered around 105.

Atlanta 91.3
New Jersey 96.9

Assist Percentage. The assist percentage measures the frequency that successful field goals have been assisted.

Atlanta 57.7%
New Jersey 82.4%

The assist figure reflects the sterling ball movement.

"Big Four" Factors. The four primary factors that determine the outcome of a basketball game are: field goal percentage, offensive rebound percentage, turnovers, and the ability to get to the line and hit free throws. Offensive rebound percentage is measured as a percentage of rebound opportunities; turnovers are measured as a percentage of possessions; and free throws are measured by the percentage of time the team got to the line in relation to field goal shot attempts.

Atlanta New Jersey
FG% 38.2% 43.6%
OREB% 19.5% 30.8%
TOV% 21.2% 18.9%
FTA/FGA 47.1% 25.6%

And the effective field goal percentage:

Atlanta 43.4%
New Jersey 46.2%

With the exception of getting to the line, the Nets totally dominated this game. The offensive rebounding differential looks particularly promising.

Nets Individual Statistics

Player Scoring Poss'ns Poss'ns. Floor% Offense Rating Points Prod. Points Scored % Tm Poss Plus/ Minus
J. Kidd 6.4 16.4 38.9% 84.6 13.9 9 25.4% +9
V. Carter 6.1 13.8 44.3% 89.9 12.4 12 20.5% -3
R. Jefferson 9.9 18.6 53.1% 112.1 20.9 25 27.5% +4
J. Collins 1.5 2.9 53.1% 108.6 3.1 2 6.0% +1
N. Krstic 3.3 7.3 45.1% 95.6 7.0 8 20.7% -2
A. Wright 5.8 9.9 59.2% 130.2 12.8 15 16.5% +14
B. Nachbar 2.8 5.8 47.8% 109.0 6.3 7 13.3% +7
D. Armstrong 1.7 5.3 31.0% 74.4 4.0 5 20.7% -4
J. Magloire 1.6 4.0 41.3% 94.5 3.8 2 15.6% -2
M. Allen 0.7 2.4 29.1% 58.2 1.4 2 20.3% +1
J. Boone 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0.0% 0
S. Williams 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0.0% 0

Another terrific performance by Antoine Wright. In fact, the "small" lineup of [Kidd-Carter-Wright-Jefferson-Collins] once again paid off for the Nets, earning a plus-five rating in approximately eight minutes of action. A big test for this lineup comes up later in the week, when Boston comes to town with Garnett and Perkins in tow.

These individual statistics are estimates based on the premise that teammates should share credit for points and scoring possessions based upon their individual contributions to each play. They are derived from the research of Dean Oliver, and more can be read in his book, "Basketball on Paper."

Glossary for Individual Statistics:

Scoring Possessions: A scoring possession is awarded to an individual when he contributes to a team scoring possession. If multiple players contribute, then credit is split among teammates based upon a formula.

Possessions: Number of team possessions used by a particular player.

Floor percentage: The percentage of a player’s possessions on which there is a scoring possession.

Offensive Rating: Points produced by an individual per 100 possessions, as calculated by a complex formula.

Points Produced: The number of points a player generates through various offensive contributions, including assists, field goals, free throws, and offensive rebounds.

Points Scored: Number of points actually scored by the player in the game, which is included here for comparison to points produced.

Percentage of Team Possessions: How often a player uses a team possession when he is in the game. With five players on the court, an average value would be 20%.

Plus/Minus: How much the team outscores the opposition when the player is in the game.

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