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The Nets' Youth Movement: High Risk, High Reward

It's been five years since the last NBA team with four rookies made it to the NBA Finals. In fact, only one NBA team with four rookies has ever made to the NBA finals...that same 2001-02 New Jersey Nets squad.

Next season, it looks like the Nets will again field a team with four rookies as the biggest story of New Jersey's off season takes shape...the Nets youth movement. Whether it's the team's desire to go younger and more athletic or simply a way of saving money, the reality is that the Nets are going to be younger at least since the 2001-02 Eastern Conference championship team. That team had Richard Jefferson, Jason Collins, Brandon Armstrong and Brian Scalabrine.

If all goes according to plan, the Nets will have Marcus Williams, Josh Boone, Hassan Adams and Mile Ilic on the roster, each with a guaranteed contract. In addition, they will have one second year player, Antoine Wright, and a young third year player, Nenad Krstic. Of the six, Krstic is the oldest, having just turned 23. Wright, Adams and Ilic are all 22, Boone 21. Williams is still only 20...and the youngest player to wear a Nets uniform in 26 years. [Ironically, the youngest was Cliff Robinson...not that Cliff Robinson, but the USC product who played for the team in 1979-80 at age 19.]

In fact, with six players 23 and under and two others--Jefferson and Bostjan Nachbar--only 26, this will be one of the youngest teams the franchise has ever fielded.

The four rookies will make only $3.3 million next season--or $400,000 less than what the team owes Jeff McInnis. Add Wright and Krstic to the mix and the six youngest players on New Jersey will make only about $6.6 million, about 10% of the team's total payroll. If they play well, it will be a big advantage for the team's bean counters. It will permit the team to pay their top players big bucks while getting value out of those at the bottom of the roster...and avoid the luxury tax. But it's a risk on the court.

The Nets hope that this year's crop is as good--or better--than the 2001-02 team, which is asking a lot. Jefferson and Collins were a big part of that team, RJ filling in for Keith Van Horn and Twin coming off the bench and eventually replacing Todd MacCulloch when his feet began to bother him. Armstrong, who is now seen as a draft bust, and Scalabrine, a player with limited skills but unlimited heart, sat most of the year at the end of the bench.

Jefferson played in 79 games, averaging 9.7 ppg and 3.4 rpg while Collins played in 77, averaging 4.5 ppg and 3.9 rpg. Armstrong got minutes in only 35 games, Scalabrine in 28. That season, the Nets also had Kenyon Martin, then listed at 24 years old and a second year player. Martin of course led the team in scoring and was a critical factor in the team's 52-win season. That's not going to happen next season, not on a team with Vince Carter, Jason Kidd and Jefferson.

Next season, the four rookies are likely to have similar opportunities. The Nets have already lost backup point guards Jacque Vaughn and Zoran Planinic and will probably buy out McInnis, leaving the primary back up role to Williams. There is little doubt that Williams is, at least as of now, the steal of the 2006 draft, a player expected to go in the top 10 who wound up at #22. He proved that in the Pepsi Pro Summer League where he dominated from the point...on offense. Whether he can improve his defense enough to give Lawrence Frank confidence in him remains open. Boone, in spite of his shoulder injury, is likely to see a lot of action behind Collins once he returns and could spell Krstic as well. Adams, taken at #54 after a series of minor brushes with the law, should be able to get minutes backing up Jefferson, his friend and fellow Arizona Wildcat. Ilic is less likely to see much time on the court. He is more likely to spending time in the Nets weight room and picking out wardrobes from big-and-tall shops.

Wright is as big a question mark as the rookies. His own rookie year was a disappointment, but reports from the Nets training facility and summer league seem to indicate a major improvement. The Nets have to hope so. They are counting on him to continue his development and step into a key bench role. But the team also had high hopes for Planinic last season. How'd that work out?

How big of a risk is it for the team to invest so much in players that young? A lot depends on their development during the course of the season and the health of the players who they are backing up. It's not likely that coach Lawrence Frank will want them playing too many minutes initially and should any of the Nets starters go down for an extended period of time, look for the Nets coach to seek experienced bodies rather than youngsters.

Right now, though, it looks like the team is going to ride its youngsters...and hard. Vaughn left for the Spurs. Scott Padgett was bought out. So, too, it appears, will Planinic and McInnis. There doesn't appear to be any room for Lamond Murray and John Thomas doesn't even expect a camp invite. Derrick Zimmerman, the point guard brought up from the 'D' League at season's end might, but then again, he is two games away from being designated a rookie.

The 2006 free agent market was slim and the Nets have been unwilling to trade any of its starters for veteran help, believing in the value of chemistry among the top players and the value of youth off the bench. It's likely the former will pay off. The question is whether the latter will. How well the youth movement could spell success--or failure-- for the team.

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I wouldn’t like it if they signed another PG. Even House, a ball-handling guard, could cut into Marcus’ minutes. I always feel that competition is good, but we’ve foudn our future PG; whe nyou’re serious about grooming an eventual cornerstone, you don’t pile on another veteran to Bogart his minutes for two years.

I like the calculated risks the Nets are taking with the rookies. Now if they would only show some courage in the free agency market (still steaming over SAR).

by Jonathan on Aug 6, 2006 11:42 AM EDT reply actions  

I liked Jacque and wish they’d kept him. But I think we are fine at the point because VC gives you about 8 mins a game at the point too, the way they run the offense through him so often. I think we are one player short of being in the conference finals with Miami. Maybe Antoine will become that. I still hope, like Joe NetsFan, that we can package Boone, McInnis, and a pick and get Kenyon Martin, or that Kenyon does a buyout and signs with us for the MLE. If we cdon’t get Kenyon, then I don’t see why we leave Lamond off the roster. He is cheap, experienced, can play the 4 and handles long stretches of downtime well.

by Mark T on Aug 9, 2006 9:10 AM EDT reply actions  

The development—or failure—of these players will obviously be a major subtheme of the 2006-07 season. If you look at all sports, and not just basketball, you see that teams that rely heavily on rookies rarely do well, and there are a number of examples where they took a “wrong turn”—that is, they failed to develop their potential, or collectively couldn’t stay away from off-the-field trouble. In some cases, when young players were placed together, they developed attitude problems, although of course we can’t know whether the same wouldn’t have happened had their introduction to the league been under other circumstances.

So this is an important time, not just for the Nets’ chances this season, but for the future development of these players. On the plus side, none of the youngsters will be starters (if you don’t count Krstic), and they are surrounded by roomates that are good role models and (by most accounts) act professionally both on and off the court. The mentoring ability of players like Carter and Cliff will certainly play a part as to how well the kids will ultimately develop.

One thing that NetIncome neglected to point out is that, like the 2001-02 squad, none of the rookies will be competing with each other: They all play different positions. This year, we will have Marcus at PG; Antoine at SG: Hassan at SF; Boone at PF; and Ilic at C. To me, the fact that the youngsters won’t have to compete among themselves for playing time, and can therefore concentrate on really honing their craft, can be a big factor influencing both their confidence and development—and hence their production. I have no doubt that this was intentional. In fact, since the Rod Thorn era, the Nets have never had two rookies the same year that play the same position.

by Dumpy on Aug 9, 2006 9:25 AM EDT reply actions  

Great points, dumpy.

I sorta consider Adams a SG and Wright a SF, but just in terms of the depth chart. See, I can see the swingman minutes being divvied up pretty much like 32/32/16/16. Part of the 16 minutes that the rookies get will be spent on-court with their mentor (Jefferson being Adams’, and Carter being Wright’s). I think that’s an ideal situation, and could provide for some great moments, as defenses will have to adjust to more of a half-court onslaught from Carter and Wright, while Adams and Jefferson give the defense fits with their breakaway speed and fininshing abilities.

by Jonathan on Aug 9, 2006 3:26 PM EDT reply actions  

I like the recruting job that Rod Thorn did this year,however i still feel that we’re one more player away from being in the finals.I would love to see them pick up Eddie house he’s a combo guard that i think would fit perfect with the Nets.

by GORDON SALAAM on Aug 9, 2006 4:21 PM EDT reply actions  

Rush I think is more likely…and fyi would add another young player to the mix. he is still only 25.

by NetIncome on Aug 9, 2006 6:01 PM EDT reply actions  

I also would like us to add a combo guard for the 15th position. I think Jeff McInnis could benefit the Portland Trailblazers. His experience could help the young point guards Jack and the rookie. Juan Dixon would most likely welcome being back close to home. He did well in some games last year and provided a spark when he was with the Wizards.

by edwardcaffrey on Aug 9, 2006 6:55 PM EDT reply actions  

Excellent blog as always but I do have one problem with one of the things you said. And I quote,

“How big of a risk is it for the team to invest so much in players that young? A lot depends on their development during the course of the season and the health of the players who they are backing up. It’s not likely that coach Lawrence Frank will want them playing too many minutes initially and should any of the Nets starters go down for an extended period of time, look for the Nets coach to seek experienced bodies rather than youngsters..”

I think this is exactly the wrong thinking when trying to break in these young players. Let us all remember it is an 82 game season. I believe we must get these kids the experience early (with the exception of Boone of course) when the games aren’t as intense and rest our big name players more so they get more longevity. As the season moves along our young players will be much more experienced and will be ready when called upon in a tight situation.

by Tim on Aug 10, 2006 12:33 AM EDT reply actions  

Tim,

I would reply that different people learn in different ways. As a manager in ANY venture, you want to create an envirnment where your new employees learn and develop, but are not overwelmed and do not get frustrated. While some players may thrive when “being thrown into the fire,” others may not, and learn better by watching others perform and by discussing plays and strategies with veterans on the bench. I think you need a mix. Some veterans will enable the youngsters to develop at a slower pace, without feeling some of the pressure they would if they were the primary options off the bench. I agree, though, that it is a two-edged sword, and you have to be careful not to use the veterans as a crutch, and really make an effort to help these players develop by gradually giving them more and more time on the court. It will take a special veteran player to be willing to play under those circumstances.

by Dumpy on Aug 10, 2006 9:22 AM EDT reply actions  

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